Forbes magazine published an article that studied career accomplishments and factors that might contribute to career success (August 30, 2018). It turns out that career success has less to do with talents and is not necessarily influenced by test scores or IQ scores. Rather, “grit,” or a combination of persistence and passion, was found to be a good indicator of a person’s career success. Tom Weyerhaeuser, an HR manager at an investment bank, is conducting a campus recruitment and wants to know how he might be able to measure “grit.” He thought that he could ask each job candidate about his or her GPA, athletic activities, leadership roles in college, study abroad experience, and employment during college as a way to gauge whether or not each candidate has the persistence and passion to succeed in the investment banking industry. He extracts data from the corporate HR database on 157 current employees with variables indicating whether or not they currently hold an upper-management position (Success = 1 if yes, 0 otherwise), had a part-time job in college (Job = 1 if yes, 0 othwerwise), graduated with a GPA higher than 3.5 (GPA = 1 if yes, 0 otherwise), represented their university in athletic activities (Sports = 1 if yes, 0 otherwise), and had a leadership role in college organizations (Leadership = 1 if yes, 0 otherwise). A portion of the Grit_Data worksheet is shown in the accompanying table.

a. Partition the data to develop a naïve Bayes classification model. Report the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and precision rates for the validation data set. 

b. Generate and display the cumulative lift chart, the decilewise lift chart, and the ROC curve.

c. Generate the ROC curve. What is the area under the ROC curve (or AUC value)? 

d. Interpret the performance measures and evaluate the effectiveness of the naïve Bayes model. 

e. Score the new job applicants in the Grit_Score worksheet. What is the predicted outcome of the first applicant? 

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Success Job GPA 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 E 0 0 ⠀ 1 Sports 1 0 B 0 Leadership 1 0 ⠀ 1