The graphs in Exercises 25 and 26 show Canadian wheat exports in dollars from January 2006 to May 2009. (Source: Based on Statistics Canada. [2011]. CANSIM Table 228-0001—Merchandise imports and exports, by major groups and principal trading areas for all countries, monthly [dollars].) The last four months of data are as follows:

2009–02...........................511,600,000
2009–03...........................478,900,000
2009–04...........................764,500,000
2009–05...........................658,300,000

An exponential smoothing model, ES, with α = 0.2 gives a smoothed value of $585,200,000 for April 2009.

An autoregressive model with one lagged independent variable, AR(1), gives:

a) Give three values for May 2009 from MA-4, ES, and AR(1).

b) Calculate the absolute percentage error, APE, for May 2009 for each of the three values.

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Standard Error Coefficients P-value t-stat Intercept 119328842.1 Y (lag 1) 0.757028401 52774663 0.115727 2.261101 0.029722 6.541492| 1.17E-07