James Triton, owner of the fictitious Triton Auto Parts, wants to use simple exponential smoothing to forecast the demand for automobile batteries for his store. He has collected the following data from his store for the past 6 months:

1. Forecast the sales for July using simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.2. Assume that the forecast for February (F₂) is the naïve forecast.

2. Forecast the sales for July using simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.4. Assume that the forecast for February (F₂) is the naïve forecast.

3. Which of the two forecasting methods should James Triton use? Compute the MAD to help James decide.

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February Month January March April May June Battery Sales (in U.S. dollars) 23 17 28 32 26 18 23