Question: A project has four activities (A, B, C and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each

A project has four activities (A, B, C and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows: Activity Activity Time (weeks) Probability A 5 0.25 6 0.35 7 0.25 8 0.15 B 3 0.20 5 0.55 7 0.25 C 10 0.10 12 0.25 14 0.40 16 0.20 18 0.05 D 8 0.60 10 0.40

a. Provide the base-case, worst-case and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project.

b. Use the random numbers 0.1778, 0.9617, 0.6849 and 0.4503 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks.

c. Discuss how simulation could be used to estimate the probability the project can be completed in 35 weeks or less.

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