4. (20 Points) You have been given the most recent 20 quarters (t) of data on...

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4. (20 Points) You have been given the most recent 20 quarters (t) of data on the sales (x) of brand A phones as the following table. You decide to use the multiplicative Holt-Winter method to forecast future sales. Your initial estimates of alpha, beta, and gamma are 0.2, 0.3, and 0.2. However, you lose some data by coincidence. Quarter 1 2 3 4 1 151 228 433 2 165 223 269 3 Year 336 4 240 383 5 471 a) Luckily, you have processed the data and recorded that 2₁(t) =210, 20 20 Σ?,(t2) =2870, Σ?°,(x) =8060, Σ?i(xt) =101315, Σ? (x) = 4261270 . t=1 Assume x = So+Got, what is your estimate of So and Go? (6 pts) b) What is your estimate of T[2]? (4 pts) c) Assume that your calculated average seasonal values are as follows: [₁] = 0.6489, T[2] = as calculated above, T[3] = 0.9180, T[4] = 1.5997, Calculate one- step ahead forecast for the first three quarters. (10 pts) 4. (20 Points) You have been given the most recent 20 quarters (t) of data on the sales (x) of brand A phones as the following table. You decide to use the multiplicative Holt-Winter method to forecast future sales. Your initial estimates of alpha, beta, and gamma are 0.2, 0.3, and 0.2. However, you lose some data by coincidence. Quarter 1 2 3 4 1 151 228 433 2 165 223 269 3 Year 336 4 240 383 5 471 a) Luckily, you have processed the data and recorded that 2₁(t) =210, 20 20 Σ?,(t2) =2870, Σ?°,(x) =8060, Σ?i(xt) =101315, Σ? (x) = 4261270 . t=1 Assume x = So+Got, what is your estimate of So and Go? (6 pts) b) What is your estimate of T[2]? (4 pts) c) Assume that your calculated average seasonal values are as follows: [₁] = 0.6489, T[2] = as calculated above, T[3] = 0.9180, T[4] = 1.5997, Calculate one- step ahead forecast for the first three quarters. (10 pts)

Answer rating: 100% (QA)

a So 4261270 101315 210 2870 557 Go 210 557 116814 ... View the full answer