5. Examples - Miscellaneous, Problem 13 Aa Aa You are given data on the annual revenues (in millions of constant 2006 dollars) for a manufacturing company from 1985 through 2006 in this Excel file. (Note: Reload this file each time through this problem.) Use these data to answer the following questions about forecasting using AR models of different orders. Note: if you are having problems with organizing data, please consult the Excel manual in your course packet (page 200). Using an AR(1) model, what is the forecasted value for 2007? Using an AR(1) model, what is the forecasted value for 2008? Using an AR(2) model, what is the forecasted value for 2007? Using an AR(2) model, what is the forecasted value for 2008? Using an AR(3) model, what is the forecasted value for 2007? Using an AR(3) model, what is the forecasted value for 2008? Using the tools from model selection from this course, which AR model would you want to use? O None of these O AR(3) OAR(1) O AR(2) Using this model, what is the forecasted value for 2009? Year Real Annual Revenues (ml 1985 8.2 1986 9 1987 8.6 1988 9.4 1989 10.5 1990 11.6 1991 11.3 1992 1993 11.2 10.2 10.2 11.1 1994 1995 1996 10.5 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 11.7 14.4 13.9 14.5 12.9 14.4 13.2 13.6 14.1 11.7 5. Examples - Miscellaneous, Problem 13 Aa Aa You are given data on the annual revenues (in millions of constant 2006 dollars) for a manufacturing company from 1985 through 2006 in this Excel file. (Note: Reload this file each time through this problem.) Use these data to answer the following questions about forecasting using AR models of different orders. Note: if you are having problems with organizing data, please consult the Excel manual in your course packet (page 200). Using an AR(1) model, what is the forecasted value for 2007? Using an AR(1) model, what is the forecasted value for 2008? Using an AR(2) model, what is the forecasted value for 2007? Using an AR(2) model, what is the forecasted value for 2008? Using an AR(3) model, what is the forecasted value for 2007? Using an AR(3) model, what is the forecasted value for 2008? Using the tools from model selection from this course, which AR model would you want to use? O None of these O AR(3) OAR(1) O AR(2) Using this model, what is the forecasted value for 2009? Year Real Annual Revenues (ml 1985 8.2 1986 9 1987 8.6 1988 9.4 1989 10.5 1990 11.6 1991 11.3 1992 1993 11.2 10.2 10.2 11.1 1994 1995 1996 10.5 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 11.7 14.4 13.9 14.5 12.9 14.4 13.2 13.6 14.1 11.7