You are given data on the annual revenues (in millions of constant 2006 dollars) for a...

   

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You are given data on the annual revenues (in millions of constant 2006 dollars) for a manufacturing company from 1985 through 2006 in this Excel file. (Note: Reload this file each time through this problem.) Use these data to answer the following questions about forecasting using AR models of different orders. Note: if you are having problems with organizing data, please consult the Excel® manual in your course packet (page 200). Using an AR(1) model, what is the forecasted value for 2007? Using an AR(1) model, what is the forecasted value for 2008? Using an AR(2) model, what is the forecasted value for 2007? Using an AR(2) model, what is the forecasted value for 2008? Using an AR(3) model, what is the forecasted value for 2007? Using an AR (3) model, what is the forecasted value for 2008? Using the tools from model selection from this course, which AR model would you want to use? AR(1) AR(2) None of these AR(3) Using this model, what is the forecasted value for 2009? 1 Year 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 | Real Annual Revenues (min 5) 9 9.3 9.7 10.7 11 11.9 11.3 11.2 10.2 10.2 9.8 10.5 11.7 14.4 14.9 14.5 14.2 14.4 13.2 10.3 9.9 10.3 You are given data on the annual revenues (in millions of constant 2006 dollars) for a manufacturing company from 1985 through 2006 in this Excel file. (Note: Reload this file each time through this problem.) Use these data to answer the following questions about forecasting using AR models of different orders. Note: if you are having problems with organizing data, please consult the Excel® manual in your course packet (page 200). Using an AR(1) model, what is the forecasted value for 2007? Using an AR(1) model, what is the forecasted value for 2008? Using an AR(2) model, what is the forecasted value for 2007? Using an AR(2) model, what is the forecasted value for 2008? Using an AR(3) model, what is the forecasted value for 2007? Using an AR (3) model, what is the forecasted value for 2008? Using the tools from model selection from this course, which AR model would you want to use? AR(1) AR(2) None of these AR(3) Using this model, what is the forecasted value for 2009? 1 Year 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 | Real Annual Revenues (min 5) 9 9.3 9.7 10.7 11 11.9 11.3 11.2 10.2 10.2 9.8 10.5 11.7 14.4 14.9 14.5 14.2 14.4 13.2 10.3 9.9 10.3

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Using an AR1 model what is the forecasted value for 2007 The forecasted value for 2007 using an AR1 model is 103 millions of constant 2006 dollars This can be calculated by using the formula Yt Yt1 b1 ... View the full answer