$6\mathrm{.}5.$ The table below shows the demand for a particular product in a department store in each of the last twelve months.

$\backslash$table$[[$Month$,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,1011,12],[$Demand$,12,15,19,23,27,303233,37414958,,,,]]$

$-$Calculate the four month moving average for months $4$ to $12.$ What would be the forecast for the demand in month $13?$

Apply exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of $0\mathrm{.}2$ to derive a forecast for the demand in month $13.$

$-$Which of the two forecasts for month $13$ do you prefer and why?

$-$What other factors, not considered in the above calculations, might influence demand in month $13?$