The table below shows the demand for a particular product in a department store in each of the last twelve months.

Month $,1223456789101112$

Demand $121519232730323337414958$

$-$Calculate the four month moving average for months $4$ to $12.$ What would be the forecast for the demand in month $13?$

$-$Apply exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of $0\mathrm{.}2$ to derive a forecast for the demand in month $13.$

$-$Which of the two forecasts for month $13$ do you prefer and why?

$-$What other factors, not considered in the above calculations, might influence demand in month $13?$