Question: A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or high, with the estimated
A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or high, with the estimated probabilities being
0.40,
0.35,
and
0.25,
respectively.
A manager is trying to decide whether build a small, medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or high, with the estimated probabilities being 0.40, 0.35, and 0.25, respectively. A small facility is expected to earn an after-tax net present value of just $11,000 if demand is low. If demand is average, the small facility is expected to earn $15,000; it can be increased to medium size to earn a net present value of $50,000. If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn $25,000 and can be expanded to medium size to earn 570, large size to earn $75.000 A medium-sized facility is expected to lose an estimated $25,000 if demand is low and earn $90,000 if demand is average. If demand is high, the medium-sized facility is expected to earn a net present value of $100,000; it can be expanded to a large size for a net payoff of $145,000. If a large facility is built and demand is high, earnings are expected to be $180,000. If demand is average for the large facility, the present value is expected to be $80,000; if demand is low, the facility is expected to lose $40,000. Choose the correct decision tree below. Note that each payoff is given in thousands (5000). High 0255180 Avg 0.35 580 Low 0.40 - 540 Expand to lg 5145 Large Med Avg 0.35 High 0.25 Do nothing $100 Expand to lng $75 Low 0.40590 Small High 0.25 Avg 0.35 Expand to meg 70 Do nothing $25 Expand to me$50 Do nothing $15 Low 0.40511 What should management do to achieve the highest expected payoff? The management should build a in order to achieve the highest expected payoff of $. (Enter your response as a whole number.)