Question: An election is being held. There are two candidates, A and B, and there are n voters. The probability of voting for Candidate A varies

An election is being held. There are two candidates, A and B, and there are n voters. The probability of voting for Candidate A varies by city. There are m cities, labeled 1, 2, . . . , m. The jth city has njvoters, so n1+ n2+ + nm= n. Let Xjbe the number of people in the jth city who vote for Candidate A, with Xj| pj Bin(nj, pj). To reflect our uncertainty about the probability of voting in each city, we treat p1, . . . , pmas r.v.s, with prior distribution asserting that they are i.i.d. Unif(0, 1). Assume that X1, . . . , Xmare independent, both unconditionally and conditional on p1, . . . , pm.

(a) Find the marginal distribution of X1and the posterior distribution of p1|X1= k1.

(b) Find E(X) and Var(X) in terms of n and s, where s = n(from 1 to 2) + n (from 2 to 2) +...+ n(from m to 2)

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