Question: BUSI 2013 2nd Learning Activity Spring 2021 1. (35 points) Business at Terry's Tie shop can be viewed as falling into three distinct seasons: 1.

BUSI 2013 2nd Learning Activity Spring 2021 1.

BUSI 2013 2nd Learning Activity Spring 2021 1. (35 points) Business at Terry's Tie shop can be viewed as falling into three distinct seasons: 1. Christmas (November to December 2. Father's Day (late May to mid June) 3. All other times Average weekly sales during each of these three seasons for the past four years has been as follows: Season Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 1 1856 1995 2241 2280 2 2012 2168 2306 2408 3 985 1072 1105 1120 (1) (30 points) Solve the forecast equation that minimizes the sum of squared error. (2) (5 points) Determine a forecast for the average weekly sales for season 1 of fifth year. Page 2 of 5 BUSI 2013 2nd Learning Activity Spring 2021 2. (25 points) Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 7 Value 24 13 2012 1923 15 Use naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. (1) (7 points) Mean Absolute Error (2) (7 points) Mean Squared Error Page 3 of 5 BUSI 2013 2nd Learning Activity Spring 2021 (3) (7 points) Mean Absolute Percentage Error (4) (4 points) What is the forecast for week 8? 3. (40 points) Consider the following time series data: Week 1 2 3 6 Value 18 13 16 11 17 14 (1) (20 points) Compute three week moving average forecast. Then Compute mean absolute error and mean square error for this method. (2) (20 points) Compute forecast using exponential smoothing (a = 0.02). Then Com- Page 4 of 5 BUSI 2013 2nd Learning Activity Spring 2021 pute mean absolute error and mean square error for this method. Page 5 of 5 BUSI 2013 2nd Learning Activity Spring 2021 1. (35 points) Business at Terry's Tie shop can be viewed as falling into three distinct seasons: 1. Christmas (November to December 2. Father's Day (late May to mid June) 3. All other times Average weekly sales during each of these three seasons for the past four years has been as follows: Season Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 1 1856 1995 2241 2280 2 2012 2168 2306 2408 3 985 1072 1105 1120 (1) (30 points) Solve the forecast equation that minimizes the sum of squared error. (2) (5 points) Determine a forecast for the average weekly sales for season 1 of fifth year. Page 2 of 5 BUSI 2013 2nd Learning Activity Spring 2021 2. (25 points) Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 7 Value 24 13 2012 1923 15 Use naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. (1) (7 points) Mean Absolute Error (2) (7 points) Mean Squared Error Page 3 of 5 BUSI 2013 2nd Learning Activity Spring 2021 (3) (7 points) Mean Absolute Percentage Error (4) (4 points) What is the forecast for week 8? 3. (40 points) Consider the following time series data: Week 1 2 3 6 Value 18 13 16 11 17 14 (1) (20 points) Compute three week moving average forecast. Then Compute mean absolute error and mean square error for this method. (2) (20 points) Compute forecast using exponential smoothing (a = 0.02). Then Com- Page 4 of 5 BUSI 2013 2nd Learning Activity Spring 2021 pute mean absolute error and mean square error for this method. Page 5 of 5

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