Case Problem $1.$ Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales A time series plot. Comment on the underlying pattern in the time series.

An analysis of the seasonality of the data. Indicate the seasonal indexes for each month, and comment on the high and low seasonal sales months. Do the seasonal indexes make intuitive sense? Discuss.

Deseasonalize the time series. Does there appear to be any trend in the deseasonalized time series?

Using the time series decomposition method, forecast sales for January through December of the fourth year.

Using the dummy variable regression approach, forecast sales for January through December of the fourth year.

Provide summary tables of your calculations and any graphs in the appendix of your report.

Assume that January sales for the fourth year turn out to be $$295,000.$ What was your forecast error? If this error is large, Karen may be puzzled about the difference between your forecast and the actual sales value. What can you do to resolve her uncertainty in the forecasting procedure?