From the following seven questions, select and answer any six. Write OMIT over the question you do not want graded. If all seven are answered, I'll grade the first six.
1. Develop a linear trend equation for the data on bread deliveries shown below.
a. Forecast deliveries for period 11 through 14.
b. Calculate and explain the Coefficient of Correlation. Explain this for someone who hasn't had the privilege of taking Operations Management.
c. Calculate and explain the Coefficient of Determination. Explain this for someone who hasn't had the privilege of taking Operations Management.

Period	Deliveries		Period	Deliveries
	(Dozens)			(Dozens)
1	648		6	856
2	590		7	760
3	631		8	962
4	769		9	990
5	745		10	1100

2. Management wants to design an assembly line that will turn out 1,000 videotapes per eight-hour day. The industrial engineering staff has assembled the information below:
a. Determine the optimum cycle time.
b. What is the theoretical minimum number of stations needed?
c. Draw the precedence diagram.
d. Using the minimum cycle time, assign tasks to stations in order of most following tasks first.
e. What is the idle rate?
Please see next page for data.

Task	Time (Min)	Pre-decessor
a	0.2	--
b	0.4	a, c
c	0.3	--
d	0.2	--
e	0.4	b, d
f	0.2	e
g	0.3	--
h	0.2	e, g
i	0.3	h

3. Given the following table of vehicles sold per month:

Period	Vehicles Sold		Period	Vehicles Sold
1	55		6	54
2	35		7	60
3	25		8	53
4	55		9	68
5	48		10	66

a. Develop forecasts for months 5 through 10 using (1) the naïve method, (2) a three-month moving average, (3) a three-month weighted average (using the weights 0.5, 0.4, and 0.1), and (4) exponential smoothing using an a of 0.25. The initial forecast for month 5 is 50.
b. Using Mean Absolute Deviation, which of the forecast methods is best for the given data?
c. Explain why?
4. Use the center of gravity method to select the best location for a distribution center. Show the locations of the destinations and the Distribution Center on a graph.

			Coordinates
Destination	Quantity		x	y
D1	200		4	1
D2	275		3	2
D3	375		1	2
D4	280		1	4
D5	350		3	4
D6	265		4	3
D7	340		2	1
D8	370		3	3

5. A manager is quite concerned about the recent deterioration of a section of the roof on a building that houses her firm's computer operations. According to her assistant there are three options which merit consideration: A, B, and C. Moreover, there are three possible future conditions that must be included in the analysis: I, which has a probability of occurrence of .5; II, which has a probability of .3; and III, which has a probability of .2.
If condition I materializes, A will cost $12,000, B will cost $20,000, and C will cost $16,000. If condition II materializes, the costs will be $15,000 for A, $18,000 for B, and $14,000 for C. If condition III materializes, the costs will be $10,000 for A, $15,000 for B, and $19,000 for C.
a. Draw a decision tree for this problem.
b. Using expected monetary value, which alternative should be chosen?
6. An analyst has observed 25 work cycles, for which the average cycle time was five minutes and the performance rating was 1.05. Allowances for the department are 25 percent of job time. What standard time is appropriate for this job?