Question: Forecast for period # 13 using the three methods as shown in the table below. Find MAD and MAPE for each method. Which method is
Forecast for period # 13 using the three methods as shown in the table below. Find MAD and MAPE for each method. Which method is giving you the best forecast? Why?
| Four period Simple | Exponential Smoothing | Nave | Method | #2 | ||||||
| Moving Average | Method Alpha = 0.7 | Forecast = Average Sales | ||||||||
| Sales | Forecast Error | %Error | Forecast Error | %Error | Forecast Error | %Error | ||||
| Period | Y | Y cap | Y Y cap | APE | Y cap | Y Y cap | APE | Y cap | Y Y cap | APE |
| 1 | 24 | ----- | ||||||||
| 2 | 25 | 24 | ||||||||
| 3 | 27 | |||||||||
| 4 | 24 | |||||||||
| 5 | 20 | |||||||||
| 6 | 21 | |||||||||
| 7 | 23 | |||||||||
| 8 | 28 | |||||||||
| 9 | 24 | |||||||||
| 10 | 26 | |||||||||
| 11 | 24 | |||||||||
| 12 | 29 | |||||||||
| Results | === | |||||||||
| Forecast | MAD | MAPE | Forecast | MAD | MAPE | Forecast | MAD | MAPE | ||
The best forecast is ____________________________________
because__________________________________________________
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