Forecasting Assignment

Use the data below to compute the following:

A$.)$ Compute the $4$ period simple moving average forecasts.

Compute the MAD and MSE for the $4-$period simple moving

average.

B$.)$ Compute the $4-$period weighted moving average forecasts

using the weights $=0\mathrm{.}1,0\mathrm{.}3,0\mathrm{.}35$ and $0\mathrm{.}25.$ Compute the MAD

and MSE for the $4-$period weighted moving average.

C$.)$ Compute the exponential smoothing forecasts using

alpha$=0\mathrm{.}15.$ Compute the MAD and MSE for the exponential

smoothing forecasts.

D$.)$ Calculate the regression line. Compute the MAD and MSE

for the regression line.

E$.)$ Use your results for A$.)-$D$.)$ to determine which forecast is

best. Explain your results.