Forecasting exercise $(5$ tasks $-10$ points each$)$

You have just been hired as Operations Analysts at a provider of state$-$of$-$the$-$art electronics components to manufacturers in the computer equipment industry. Your manager would like for your team to demonstrate your capabilities immediately by conducting a thorough analysis of the demand for the most populat products. The data includes monthly sales $($in Units Sold$)$ for each of the products for $2021$ through $2023.$ The season associated with each month is also included in the data.

The XJ$-422$ Relay is one of the most important products in your portfolio. Complete tasks $1-5$ to develop sales forecasts for XJ$-422$ Relay. $*$Use the number of units sold to develop forecasts.

Task $1(10$ points$)-$ Naive approach & Moving averages

Q $1\mathrm{.}1$ Using naive approach based on the most recent data, develop sales forecast for January $2024.$

Q $1\mathrm{.}2$ Using three$(3)$ month moving avarages, develop sales forcast for January $2024.$

Task $2(10$ points$)-$ Weighted moving averages

Q $2\mathrm{.}1$ Using weighted moving averages, develop sales forcast for $2024($January $-$ December$).$ Use the following $(\mathrm{.}5,\mathrm{.}3,$ and $\mathrm{.}1)$ as weight with the highest weight assigned on the most recent period. What will be sales forcast for January $2024?$

Q $2\mathrm{.}2$ What is expected sales revenue according to your January $2024$ sales forcast?

Task $3(10$ points$)-$ Exponential smoothing

Q $3\mathrm{.}1$ Using the following smoothing constant $()$ develop sales forecast for January $2024.$ Sales forecast for January $2023$ was $3,580.$

$=\mathrm{.}2$

$=\mathrm{.}5$

Task $4(10$ points$)-$ MAD & MSE $($refer to Task $3)$

Q $4\mathrm{.}1$ Using the forecast develop in Task $3,$ calculate MAD and MSE for each smoothing constant.

Q $4\mathrm{.}2$ Which smoothing constant do you think should be used for forecasting and why?

Task $5(10$ points$)-$ Trend projection

Q $5\mathrm{.}1$ Using the data from $2021$ to $2023,$ draw a line graph to see if there is a trend. Do you see a trend in the demand pattern?

Q $5\mathrm{.}2$ Using the data from $2021$ to $2023,$ develop a trend projection line. Using the liner trend line, develop sales forecas for January $2024.$

Task $6($bonus $10$ points!$)$