Question: I'm having trouble computing the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for an exponential curve. The data presented in column 1 is the year, and column
I'm having trouble computing the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for an exponential curve.
The data presented in column 1 is the year, and column 2 is Revenue.
Suppose my data starts in year 1 and extends to year 50. I have corresponding yearly sales data,
Utilizing the Exponential function y=ae^(bx) what is my yearly forecast? And the Mean Absolute Percentage Error?
Example: apparently my Exponential Forecast and Absolute Error are incorrect.
| Year Count | Average of Seasonally Adjusted Sales | YoY Growth (Actual) | Exponential Forecast | Absolute % Error |
| 1 | $150,781.17 | |||
| 2 | $161,696.25 | 7.2% | $172,399 | 6.6% |
| 3 | $175,688.83 | 8.7% | $179,974 | 2.4% |
| 4 | $185,437.25 | 5.5% | $187,882 | 1.3% |
| 5 | $196,728.17 | 6.1% | $196,137 | 0.3% |
| 6 | $206,334.08 | 4.9% | $204,755 | 0.8% |
| 7 | $215,657.67 | 4.5% | $213,751 | 0.9% |
| 8 | $233,872.00 | 8.4% | $223,143 | 4.6% |
| 9 | $248,748.25 | 6.4% | $232,948 | 6.4% |
| 10 | $255,663.75 | 2.8% | $243,183 | 4.9% |
| 11 | $261,272.42 | 2.2% | $253,868 | 2.8% |
| 12 | $272,232.50 | 4.2% | $265,022 | 2.6% |
| 13 | $288,987.50 | 6.2% | $276,667 | 4.3% |
| 14 | $307,826.08 | 6.5% | $288,823 | 6.2% |
| 15 | $323,823.08 | 5.2% | $301,513 | 6.9% |
| 16 | $334,008.00 | 3.1% | $314,761 | 5.8% |
| 17 | $328,780.33 | -1.6% | $328,591 | 0.1% |
| 18 | $303,288.92 | -7.8% | $343,029 | 13.1% |
| 19 | $323,964.17 | 6.8% | $358,100 | 10.5% |
| 20 | $349,717.75 | 7.9% | $373,835 | 6.9% |
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