Measuring Forecast Performance

DoD is approaching this crisis. Stein (2023) states that in the previous fiscal year, the Army fell short of its recruitment objective by 15,000 active-duty soldiers, which accounts for 25 percent of the intended target. As a result, the Army had to reduce its planned active-duty personnel from 476,000 to 466,000. Unfortunately, the current fiscal year is anticipated to present an even greater challenge. The Army has been around for 248 years, and I am sure there is plenty of historical data to make predictions, but what happens when social and cultural factors affect the way you approach staffing and recruiting?