No other information is given. Please provide clear step by step solution for the following:

1. I am playing Master of Magic (again). I am about to fight an enemy army of 9 spearmen units. I have two options. The first option is to cast the dreaded 'Flamestrike' spell. This spell hits each enemy unit with a blast of fire from the heavens. Effectively the computer rolls a 10 sided dice once for each unit to determine how much damage that unit suffers. Spearmen units each have 3 'hit points' so a roll of 3 or better means that particular unit is eliminated. The second option is to cast the 'confusion' spell. It is a lower power spell so I can cast it 6 times. It is not as dramatic, and in only targets a single unit when it is cast, but if it works, that one enemy unit becomes confused and attacks one of its erstwhile friends. When the spell is successful, the confused unit eliminates itself and the unit it attacked in the process kind of a two for the price of one deal. Sadly, there is a 60% chance that the spell will confuse and enemy unit. Either strategy would take all my spell power, leaving me too weak to defend myself. If any enemy units survived, I would lose the battle. Which spell approach should I use? For each strategy, how likely it is that I would win the battle? Be sure to support your conclusion using appropriate analytics techniques