Page 1 1. The attached spreadsheet contains demand for a period of 24 months. Use this data set to answer the following questions, (a) Plot the data. Just by looking at the plot, do you think a 3-week simple moving average would be a better forecast, or a 6-weck simple moving average? Just by looking at the plot, do you think an exponential smoothing with value of a = 0.1 would be better forecast or would a = 0.3 be better? Explain your reasoning. (b) Of the four possible forecasts (3-week and 6-week simple moving average and exponential smoothing with value of a = 0.1 and a = 0.3), which is the best forecast? Justify your answer by calculating MAD. (c) What would a 1-period moving average forecasting method mean? (d) Compare and contrast cxponential smoothing when a is small (ncar zero) and when a is large (ncar 1). 2. Based on our class discussion, try to justify the name "Exponential Smoothing". (Hint: Try to recursively substit the formula for Fn-1 in Fn, Fn-2 in Fn-1 and so on and so forth. You should try doing that until you see an exponential trend appearing.) 3. How would you explain the Bullwhip Effect" to someone who is starting a small-scale business but hasn't taken this class? Try to be as succinct as possible. 4. The following are the precedence requirements, normal and crash activity times, and normal and crash costs for one of the many ever-continuing construction projects on UBC campus, (a) What is the critical path? (b) What is the estimated completion time? (c) To shorten the project by three weeks, which tasks would be shortened and what would the final total project cost be? Table 1 Periodt Period Name Demand 11724 1 Jan 2014 2 Feb 2014 12134 3 11925 13866 4 5 15260 6 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 15475 7 20201 81 22508 9 22096 10 17862 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 11 12659 12 Dec 2014 14390 13 Jan 2015 16560 14 Feb 2015 17817 15 Mar 2015 18726 16 Apr 2015 21470 17 May 2015 23867 18 Jun 2015 27758 19 Jul 2015 35284 20 33966 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 21 30057 22 Oct 2015 22062 18228 23 Nov 2015 24 Dec 2015 19705