Question: Perform three forecasts of your choice from the methods we have learned (moving average, weighted moving average with optimization of weights, exponential smoothing with optimization

Perform three forecasts of your choice from the methods we have learned (moving average, weighted moving average with optimization of weights, exponential smoothing with optimization of alpha, simple regression)and calculate the forecasts for wheat prices in the three countries for the next period. Discuss, using adequate metrics, which forecast you would trust most

Country Name Germany United Kingdom Italy
Country Code DEU GBR ITA
Indicator Name Wheat price (US$ per metric ton) Wheat price (US$ per metric ton) Wheat price (US$ per metric ton)
Indicator Code PA.PPR.WHEA.CD PA.PPR.WHEA.CD PA.PPR.WHEA.CD
1973 141.4353064 142.0973073 157.4950772
1974 151.8693846 135.5913184 185.3621858
1975 179.2471619 123.8825682 196.7407471
1976 189.4360604 129.3777291 188.8013841
1977 195.9365768 144.7829303 209.7795981
1978 225.0301202 164.9073355 240.45587
1979 247.152023 203.3118656 266.2319374
1980 254.1715493 230.0747162 296.5449117
1981 209.2920354 219.0333996 250.1222773
1982 202.7536584 199.1450737 228.4049656
1983 191.1282047 189.4728864 222.0726207
1984 157.417233 152.9647902 208.4304708
1985 141.3057878 143.7286813 189.3869407
1986 194.7980179 162.7095985 264.2160973
1987 222.5449123 181.3944823 285.4436875
1988 219.7902313 186.7762421 282.4888793
1989 195.2086126 171.8007831 244.3134197
1990 214.7636053 195.3204765 311.625073
1991 206.6837798 204.5801257 295.6489146
1992 219.6394839 210.6098207 277.3346532
1993 171.7755788 185.9748004 233.5686643

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