Question: Question 1: Based on what you have studied in the decision analysis theory, solve the following problem: (10 marks) State of Nature Alternatives Favorable Unfavorable

Question 1: Based on what you have studied in the decision analysis theory, solve the following problem: (10 marks)

State of Nature

Alternatives

Favorable

Unfavorable

Construct Large firm

400 000

- 380 000

Construct Small firm

200 000

- 40 000

Do nothing

0

0

Probabilities

0.5

0.5

From the table above solve the following questions:

  1. What is the maxi-max decision (Optimistic)? (1 Mark)
  2. What is the maxi-min decision (pessimistic)? (1 Mark)
  3. What is the equally likely decision? (1 Mark)
  4. What is the criterion of realism? Use value of 0.8(2 Marks)
  5. Develop an opportunity loss table and determine the mini-max regret decision.

(3 Marks)

  1. Determine the EMV criterion if the decision making environment is under risk. (2 marks)

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