Question 1. The spreadsheet "Assignment3-Forecasting.xlsx" contains data for the past 30 months of demand for a product. Based on the data, answer the following questions. a) Plot the data. Just by looking at the plot, do you think a 3-month moving average would be a better forecast, or a 6-month moving average (different people could reach different conclusions, but you need to give good reasons for your conclusions)? b) Which one of the following four forecast methods is the best forecast: 3-month and 6-month moving averages, and exponential smoothing with =0.2 and =0.6. Justify your answer by calculating MAD. [Submit the excel file along with your solutions to the assignment. Note that you need to explain your answers to the following questions in detail, and just submitting the calculations done by excel is not enough.] \begin{tabular}{|c|r|} \hline Assignment 3 Data & \\ \hline Month t & Demand \\ \hline 1 & 574 \\ \hline 2 & 1,004 \\ \hline 3 & 717 \\ \hline 4 & 1,076 \\ \hline 5 & 1,076 \\ \hline 6 & 932 \\ \hline 7 & 1,291 \\ \hline 8 & 1,219 \\ \hline 9 & 932 \\ \hline 10 & 1,219 \\ \hline 11 & 1,219 \\ \hline 12 & 1,076 \\ \hline 13 & 1,650 \\ \hline 14 & 1,650 \\ \hline 15 & 1,434 \\ \hline 16 & 1,219 \\ \hline 17 & 1,291 \\ \hline 18 & 1,578 \\ \hline 19 & 1,793 \\ \hline 20 & 1,721 \\ \hline 21 & 1,578 \\ \hline 22 & 1,865 \\ \hline 23 & 1,434 \\ \hline 24 & 1,793 \\ \hline 25 & 1,865 \\ \hline 30 & 1,506 \\ \hline 29 & 1,650 \\ \hline 26 & 1,506 \\ \hline 1,721 \\ \hline & 1,506 \\ \hline \end{tabular}