(Requires StatTools) This data set has obvious seasonality and some upward trend, so one appropriate forecasting method is to use Holt's exponential smoothing method on the deseasonalized series If this method is used with both smoothing constants equal to 0 2, which of the following is true Click here to reference the data needed to answer the question a If the graph of the deseasonalized errors is requested, it will show a seasonal pattern b To get a future forecast (i e , beyond 2016), this method starts with the last estimated deseasonalized level, keeps adding the last estimated deseasonalized trend, and finally multiplies the sum by the relevant seasonal factor c This method updates the seasonal factors through time, i e , the seasonal factors change from year to year d All of these choices are true Month Value Jan 12 6001 Feb 12 5702 Mar 12 10784 Apr 12 10004 May 12 12606 Jun 12 15300 Jul 12 18936 Aug 12 23240 Sep 12 18438 Oct 12 12424 Nov 12 6963 Dec 12 9202 Jan 13 11420 Feb 13 7622 Mar 13 10177 Apr 13 10189 May 13 14166 Jun 13 13736 Jul 13 20912 Aug 13 25546 Sep 13 15757 Oct 13 12897 Nov 13 8709 Dec 13 12632 Jan 14 10242 Feb 14 9466 Mar 14 10888 Apr 14 14205 May 14 16066 Jun 14 24185 Jul 14 27871 Aug 14 36070 Sep 14 21900 Oct 14 16028 Nov 14 11198 Dec 14 13573 Jan 15 9958 Feb 15 12113 Mar 15 14488 Apr 15 18210 May 15 17427 Jun 15 28348 Jul 15 32036 Aug 15 42234 Sep 15 22413 Oct 15 15762 Nov 15 13085 Dec 15 16189 Jan 16 12347 Feb 16 12823 Mar 16 16182 Apr 16 23178 May 16 18621 Jun 16 27557 Jul 16 39899 Aug 16 39624 Sep 16 30104 Oct 16 19171 Nov 16 13147 Dec 16 18186

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Question: (Requires StatTools) This data set has obvious seasonality and some upward trend, so one appropriate forecasting method is to use Holt's exponential smoothing method on

(Requires StatTools) This data set has obvious seasonality and some upward trend, so one appropriate forecasting method is to use Holt's exponential smoothing method on the deseasonalized series. If this method is used with both smoothing constants equal to 0.2, which of the following is true?

Click here to reference the data needed to answer the question.

a. If the graph of the deseasonalized errors is requested, it will show a seasonal pattern.

b. To get a future forecast (i.e., beyond 2016), this method starts with the last estimated deseasonalized level, keeps adding the last estimated deseasonalized trend, and finally multiplies the sum by the relevant seasonal factor.

c. This method updates the seasonal factors through time, i.e., the seasonal factors change from year to year.

	d. All of these choices are true.
Month	Value
Jan-12	6001
Feb-12	5702
Mar-12	10784
Apr-12	10004
May-12	12606
Jun-12	15300
Jul-12	18936
Aug-12	23240
Sep-12	18438
Oct-12	12424
Nov-12	6963
Dec-12	9202
Jan-13	11420
Feb-13	7622
Mar-13	10177
Apr-13	10189
May-13	14166
Jun-13	13736
Jul-13	20912
Aug-13	25546
Sep-13	15757
Oct-13	12897
Nov-13	8709
Dec-13	12632
Jan-14	10242
Feb-14	9466
Mar-14	10888
Apr-14	14205
May-14	16066
Jun-14	24185
Jul-14	27871
Aug-14	36070
Sep-14	21900
Oct-14	16028
Nov-14	11198
Dec-14	13573
Jan-15	9958
Feb-15	12113
Mar-15	14488
Apr-15	18210
May-15	17427
Jun-15	28348
Jul-15	32036
Aug-15	42234
Sep-15	22413
Oct-15	15762
Nov-15	13085
Dec-15	16189
Jan-16	12347
Feb-16	12823
Mar-16	16182
Apr-16	23178
May-16	18621
Jun-16	27557
Jul-16	39899
Aug-16	39624
Sep-16	30104
Oct-16	19171
Nov-16	13147
Dec-16	18186

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