Task Task Name Predecessor(s) toptimistic tmost likely tpessimistic taverage Variance Critical Path (Y or N) 1 Codify accounts none 16 19 28 20 4 y 2 File articles of unification none 30 30 30 30 0 N 3 Unify price and credit policy none 60 72 90 73 25 N 4 Unify personnel policies none 18 27 30 26 4 N 5 Unify data processing 1 17 29 47 30 25 Y 6 Train accounting staff 1 4 7 10 7 1 N 7 Pilot run data processing 5 12 15 18 15 1 Y 8 Calculate P&L and balance sheet 6,7 6 12 24 13 9 Y 9 Transfer real property 2 18 27 30 26 4 N 10 Train sales force 3 20 35 50 35 25 N 11 Negotiate with unions 4 40 55 100 60 100 N 12 Determine capital needs 8 11 20 29 20 9 Y 13 Explain personnel policies 11 14 23 26 22 4 N 14 Secure line of credit 9,12 13 16 19 16 1 Y 15 End 10,13,14 0 0 0 0 Y

1. Completion of "Negotiate with Unions"

2. z =

3. Probability of completing "Negotiate with Unions" within 90 days