Question: An oil and gas industry produces firm produces oil. The profit function for the firm is give as: profit = ($100-variable cost)*gallons oil sold-fixed cost.

An oil and gas industry produces firm produces oil. The profit function for the firm is give as: profit = ($100-variable cost)*gallons oil sold-fixed cost. The current production rate is 5 million barrels per year. The firm can expand the production by conducting further stepwise exploration, adding I million or 2 million barrels per year with the following cost implications:

Scenarios

Capacity (barrel/year)

Fixed cost

Variable cost

Current

5 million

$ 10 million

$30 /barrel

Add 1 million

6 million

$14 million

$26 /barrel

Add 2 million

7 million

$18 million

$24 /barrel

Annual demand of oil is probabilistic with following distribution

Oil demand

Probability

3 million

0.1

4 million

0.2

5 million

0.3

6 million

0.3

7 million

0.4

8 million

0.4

9 million

0.2

10 million

0.1

Develop a spreadsheet profit model for each scenario, and average profit for each scenario (using same random number).

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