This Corporation is initiating a project consisting of several activities, each with its three-time estimates. A list
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This Corporation is initiating a project consisting of several activities, each with its three-time estimates. A list of activities and their optimistic completion time, the most likely completion time, and the pessimistic completion time (all in days) for a new contract are given in the following table:
Activity | Optimistic time (a) | Most likely time (m) | Pessimistic time (b) | Immediate predecessors |
A | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
B | 1 | 4 | 7 | A |
C | 1 | 3 | 11 | A |
D | 2 | 2 | 8 | B, C |
E | 2 | 3 | 4 | D |
F | 1 | 7 | 31 | B, C |
G | 2 | 2 | 2 | E |
- Draw the AON networks for these activities.
- Filling out following table by calculating the expected time and variance for activities E, F and G
Activity | Expected time | Variance |
A | 2 | 0.11 |
B | 4 | 1 |
C | 4 | 2.77 |
D | 3 | 1 |
E | ||
F | ||
G |
- Using the expected time of each activity calculated in part (b) as the duration of the activity, determine the Early Start (ES), Early Finish (EF), Late Start (LS), Late Finish (LF), and slack for each activity. Fill out the table provided below with your findings.
Activity | ES | EF | LS | LF | Slack time |
A | |||||
B | |||||
C | |||||
D | |||||
E | |||||
F | |||||
G |
- determine the total project completion time and the critical path or paths for the project.
- Compute the total project variance (Use Maximum value for variance if you have more than one critical path) and project standard deviation.
- What is the probability that the project due date is between 15 and 18 days?
- What is the due date that yield a 68% chance of completion?
- What is the probability of completing Activity C by day 7?
- Consider the path A-B-D-E-G. What is the probability that this path will exceed the expected project duration?
- Assuming $500 is a cost for every day project is delayed beyond its expected completion time. Calculate the additional cost incurred for the project if the expected time used in part (c) for Activities B and F are delayed by 2 and 4 days, respectively? Now assume instead that there is a delay of 2 days on the expected time used in part (c) for activity E. How much would be the additional cost incurred for the project)
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