This question needs a decision tree with something like TreePlan from Excel.

Monster Studios is a small movie production studio specializing in horror flicks. Historically, the movies they have produced either do quite well (are "hits") or quite poorly (are "flops"). They earn an average of $40 million from their hit movies, and lose an average of $15 million on their flops. Of all movies produced in recent years, 40% have been hits and 60% have been flops. At a cost of C dollars, a market research firm can be hired to analyze a movie script, conduct market surveys, and make a prediction of how the movie will do if it is produced. If they issue a positive report, it is likely the movie would be a hit, while if they issue a negative report, it is likely the movie would be a flop. However, the report is not always accurate. The market research firm has the following track record on thirty similar previous movie scripts that they have analyzed:

Movie is a Hit Movie is a Flop Market Research Issues Positive Report 9 6 Market Research Issues Negative Report 3 12