Three Time Estimates

Activity	Optimistic Time	Most Likely Time	Pessimistic Time
A: Concept Development	3	12	24
Plan Definition
B: Define Project scope	1	2	12
C: Develop broad schedule	0.25	0.5	1
D: Detailed cost estimates	0.2	0.3	0.5
E: Develop staffing plan	0.2	0.3	0.6
Design and Construction
F: Detailed engineering	2	3	6
G: Facility construction	8	12	24
H: Mobilitization of employees	0.5	2	4
I: Procurement of equipment	1	3	12
Start Up and Turnover
J: Pre-Start- up inspection	0.25	0.5	1
K: Recruiting and training	0.25	0.5	1
L: Solving start-up problems	0	1	2
M: Centerlining	0	1	4

Three Cost Rate Estimates:

Activity	Optimistic Time	Most Likely Time	Pessimistic Time
A: Concept Development	1,900	2,000	2,300
Plan Definition
B: Define Project scope	23,750	25,000	28,750
C: Develop broad schedule	15,200	16,000	18,400
D: Detailed cost estimates	28,500	30,000	34,500
E: Develop staffing plan	27,000	30,000	33,000
Design and Construction
F: Detailed engineering	360,000	400,000	440,000
G: Facility construction	112,500	125,000	156,250
H: Mobilitization of employees	270,000	300,000	330,000
I: Procurement of equipment	360,000	400,000	440,000
Start Up and Turnover
J: Pre-Start- up inspection	90,000	100,000	110,000
K: Recruiting and training	540,000	600,000	660,000
L: Solving start-up problems	90,000	100,000	110,000
M: Centerlining	45,000	50,000	55,000

Calculate the probability that the project can be completed within 30 months. What is the probability that the project will take longer than 40 months? What is the probability that the project will take between 30-40 months? What is the probability the project will cost 5.1 million or less to complete? The probability the project will cost between 5 and 6 million to complete?