Question: U.S. Treasury 10-Year Bond Yields at Weeks End ( n = 52 weeks) Week Yield Week Yield Week Yield Week Yield 4/2/04 5.30 7/2/04 5.98

U.S. Treasury 10-Year Bond Yields at Weeks End (n = 52 weeks)
Week Yield Week Yield Week Yield Week Yield
4/2/04 5.30 7/2/04 5.98 10/1/04 5.45 12/31/04 5.64
4/9/04 5.56 7/9/04 5.84 10/8/04 5.55 1/7/05 5.63
4/16/04 5.71 7/16/04 5.82 10/15/04 5.43 1/14/05 5.60
4/23/04 5.78 7/23/04 5.81 10/22/04 5.38 1/21/05 5.54
4/30/04 5.84 7/30/04 5.91 10/29/04 5.40 1/28/05 5.54
5/7/04 5.97 8/6/04 5.76 11/5/04 5.47 2/4/05 5.49
5/14/04 6.16 8/13/04 5.63 11/12/04 5.57 2/11/05 5.41
5/21/04 6.09 8/20/04 5.58 11/19/04 5.52 2/18/05 5.51
5/28/04 6.03 8/27/04 5.60 11/26/04 5.55 2/25/05 5.63
6/4/04 6.09 9/3/04 5.54 12/3/04 5.70 3/4/05 5.72
6/11/04 6.15 9/10/04 5.56 12/10/04 5.54 3/11/05 5.80
6/18/04 6.10 9/17/04 5.49 12/17/04 5.51 3/18/05 5.86
6/25/04 6.04 9/24/04 5.39 12/24/04 5.56 3/25/05 5.94

Perform exponential smoothing with = .20. Use both methods A and B to initialize the forecast. Record the statistics of fit. (Round the Mean squared error to 3 decimal places, percent values to 1 decimal place and Forecast to 2 decimal places.)

= .20
Mean squared error
Mean absolute percent error %
Forecast for period 53

Do the smoothing again with = .10 and then with = .30, recording the statistics of fit. (Round the Mean squared error to 3 decimal places and percent values to 1 decimal place.)

= .10 = .30
Mean squared error
Mean absolute percent error % %

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