Use $2-$month, $3-$month, and $4-$month moving averages to forecast demand in month $12.$

$(5$ pts$)$

b$.$ Forecast demand with a $3-$month weighted moving average in which demand in the

most recent month is given a weight of $3$ and demands in the other two months are

each given a weight of $1.(5$ pts$)$

c$.$ Forecast demand for month $12$ by using exponential smoothing with a smoothing

constant of $0\mathrm{.}7.$ Assume that the forecast for month $1$ is $6,000$ bags to begin the

procedure. $(10$ pts$)$

d$.$ Which of the methods analyzed here would you use for month $12$ and beyond? Answer

by making forecasts for months $5-11$ using each of the above methods and then

calculating the mean absolute deviation $($MAD$).(20$ pts$)$