You have access to a large database that includes the performance of thousands of mutual funds over a 20-year period. For each fund and in each year, the database shows the name of the mutual fund manager and the yearly return of the fund. What do you expect to observe more frequently in the data: (1) Mutual fund managers with returns in the top 10% of all funds in three consecutive years (2) Mutual fund managers with returns in the bottom 10% of all funds in three consecutive years. Please provide an explanation to support your answer.