You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill. Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials they need to create the products required in a certain period of time.

Your objective is to minimize the forecast error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error $($MAPE$)$ with a goal of being below $25\%.$

You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on five different forecasting techniques $($Naive$,3-$Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for $\mathrm{.}2,$ Exponential Smooth for $5,$ and Seasonal$)$ to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.