Your first project involves working with statisticians and geologists conducting site surveys to discover how deep the wells must be dug vertically before they can drill horizontally. The geologists give you information from several of their field tests and site surveys with estimations, provided in the below table. If the firm is unlucky, and the geologists are inaccurate (i.e. the p(unlucky) = 1), the firm will have to dig deeper before reaping revenues. If the firm is lucky, (i.e. the p(unlucky)=0), they will have to dig to the shallower depth and will earn revenues sooner.

The best (lucky) and worst (unlucky) scenarios associated with each well location are listed in the following table:

Well Serial Number	Well's Name	Shallowest Kick-Off Point (Meters)	Deepest Kick-Off Point (Meters)
01	Alpha	-2100	-3000
02	Beta	-2200	-2750
03	Charlie	-2400	-2600
04	Delta	-2500	-2550
05	Echo	-2700	-2950
06	Hotel	-2800	-3000

Hint: With all remaining variables unchanged, digging deeper is more expensive and less advantageous.

Graph the decisions on the following page, using the X₁ Axis as the probability of unlucky. Ensure you label each graphed line and all data points on the left axis and right axis. Ensure you draw the EVwPI line.

At which probability is the firm indifferent between drilling wells Alpha and Beta? (round probability to 4 decimal points, ex: p= 0.1515 )
At which probability is the firm indifferent between drilling wells Beta and Charlie? (round probability to 4 decimal points, ex: p= 0.1515 )
What is the formula for EVwPI for this problem?
What is EVPI when p = 0.5?
Which options, if any, can be eliminated from your decision analysis?