Reconsider the table in question 2 in the following way:

If John studies 5 h per day, then he estimates the probabilities in three confidence levels as .2 for high, .6 for average, and .2 for low. The same interpretations apply to the other two levels.

(a) What are the probabilities for the high level, given 0, 5, and 10 studying hours per day?

(b) Suppose the probability for each action is 1/3 . What are the probabilities for 0, 5, and 10 h of study per day, given the high level?

Question 2

John faces the following decision problem:

With 5 h of study per day, John estimates that there are three different numbers of points he can get on the midterm: 80 with high confidence, 60 with average confidence, and 50 with low confidence. He also has two other possible actions:
studying 0 h per day and studying 10 h per day. Estimate the points he can get on the midterm in each of the three states: high, average, and low. Try to use the maximin criterion to choose the best action and specify the most points he can get on the midterm.

Transcribed Image Text:

Study hours per day 0 5 10 High .2 .2 .4 Average .5 .6 .5 Low .3 .2 .1