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Quantitative Analysis For Management 11th Edition Barry Render, Ralph M. Stair, Michael E. Hanna - Solutions

What is the purpose of Bayesian analysis? Describe how you would use Bayesian analysis in the decision making process.
What is the EVSI? How is this computed?
How is the efficiency of sample information computed?
What is the overall purpose of utility theory?
Briefly discuss how a utility function can be assessed. What is a standard gamble, and how is it used in determining utility values?
How is a utility curve used in selecting the best decision for a particular problem?
What is a risk seeker? What is a risk avoider? How does the utility curve for these types of decision makers differ?
Kenneth Brown is the principal owner of Brown Oil, Inc. After quitting his university teaching job, Ken has been able to increase his annual salary by a factor of over 100. At the present time, Ken is forced to consider purchasing some more equipment for Brown Oil because of competition. His
The Lubricant is an expensive oil newsletter to which many oil giants subscribe, including Ken Brown (see Problem 3-17 for details). In the last issue, the letter described how the demand for oil products would be extremely high. Apparently, the American consumer will continue to use oil products
Mickey Lawson is considering investing some money that he inherited. The following payoff table gives the profits that would be realized during the next year for each of three investment alternatives Mickey is considering:(a) What decision would maximize expected profits?(b) What is the maximum
Develop an opportunity loss table for the investment problem that Mickey Lawson faces in Problem 3-20. What decision would minimize the expected opportunity loss? What is the minimum EOL?
Allen Young has always been proud of his personal investment strategies and has done very well over the past several years. He invests primarily in the stock market. Over the past several months, however, Allen has become very concerned about the stock market as a good investment. In some cases it
In Problem 3-22 you helped Allen Young determine the best investment strategy. Now, Young is thinking about paying for a stock market newsletter. A friend of Young said that these types of letters could predict very accurately whether the market would be good, fair, or poor. Then, based on these
Today's Electronics specializes in manufacturing modern electronic components. It also builds the equipment that produces the components. Phyllis Weinberger, who is responsible for advising the president of Today's Electronics on electronic manufacturing equipment, has developed the following table
Brilliant Color is a small supplier of chemicals and equipment that are used by some photographic stores to process 35mm film. One product that Brilliant Color supplies is BC-6. John Kubick, president of Brilliant Color, normally stocks 11, 12, or 13 cases of BC-6 each week. For each case that John
Megley Cheese Company is a small manufacturer of several different cheese products. One of the products is a cheese spread that is sold to retail outlets.Jason Megley must decide how many cases of cheese spread to manufacture each month. The probability that the demand will be six cases is 0.1, for
Farm Grown, Inc., produces cases of perishable food products. Each case contains an assortment of vegetables and other farm products. Each case costs $5 and sells for $15. If there are any cases not sold by the end of the day, they are sold to a large food processing company for $3 a case. The
Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time, Susan Solomon has been thinking about starting her own independent gasoline station. Susan's problem is to decide how large her station should be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of her station and a number
Beverly Mills has decided to lease a hybrid car to save on gasoline expenses and to do her part to help keep the environment clean. The car she selected is available from only one dealer in the local area, but that dealer has several leasing options to accommodate a variety of driving patterns. All
Refer to the leasing decision facing Beverly Mills in Problem 3-29. Develop the opportunity loss table for this situation. Which option would be chosen based on the minimax regret criterion? Which alternative would result in the lowest expected opportunity loss?
The game of roulette is popular in many casinos around the world. In Las Vegas, a typical roulette wheel has the numbers 1-36 in slots on the wheel. Half of these slots are red, and the other half are black. In the United States, the roulette wheel typically also has the numbers 0 (zero) and 00
Refer to the Problem 3-31 for details about the game of roulette. Another bet in a roulette game is called a "straight up" bet, which means that the player is betting that the winning number will be the number that she chose. In a game with 0 and 00, there are a total of 38 possible outcomes (the
The Technically Techno Company has several patents for a variety of different Flash memory devices that are used in computers, cell phones, and a variety of other things. A competitor has recently introduced a product based on technology very similar to something patented by Technically Techno last
A group of medical professionals is considering the construction of a private clinic. If the medical demand is high (i.e., there is a favorable market for the clinic), the physicians could realize a net profit of $100,000. If the market is not favorable, they could lose $40,000. Of course, they
The physicians in Problem 3-34 have been approached by a market research firm that offers to perform a study of the market at a fee of $5,000. The market researchers claim their experience enables them to use Bayes' theorem to make the following statements of probability:Probability of a favorable
Jerry Smith is thinking about opening a bicycle shop in his hometown. Jerry loves to take his own bike on 50-mile trips with his friends, but he believes that any small business should be started only if there is a good chance of making a profit. Jerry can open a small shop, a large shop, or no
Jerry Smith (Problem 3-36) has done some analysis about the profitability of the bicycle shop. If Jerry builds the large bicycle shop, he will earn $60,000 if the market is favorable, but he will lose $40,000 if the market is unfavorable. The small shop will return a $30,000 profit in a favorable
Bill Holliday is not sure what she should do. He can either build a quadplex (i.e., a building with four apartments), build a duplex, gather additional information, or simply do nothing. If he gathers additional information, the results could be either favorable or unfavorable, but it would cost
Peter Martin is going to help his brother who wants to open a food store. Peter initially believes that there is a 50-50 chance that his brother's food store would be a success. Peter is considering doing a market research study. Based on historical data, there is a 0.8 probability that the
Mark Martinko has been a class A racquetball player for the past five years, and one of his biggest goals is to own and operate a racquetball facility. Unfortunately, Mark's thinks that the chance of a successful racquetball facility is only 30%. Mark's lawyer has recommended that he employ one of
A financial advisor has recommended two possible mutual funds for investment: Fund A and Fund B. The return that will be achieved by each of these depends on whether the economy is good, fair, or poor. A payoff table has been constructed to illustrate this situation:(a) Draw the decision tree to
Jim Sellers is thinking about producing a new type of electric razor for men. If the market were favorable, he would get a return of $100,000, but if the market for this new type of razor were unfavorable, he would lose $60,000. Since Ron Bush is a good friend of Jim Sellers, Jim is considering the
Jim Sellers has been able to estimate his utility for a number of different values. He would like to use these utility values in making the decision in Problem 3-42: U (– $80,000) = 0, U (– $65,000) = 0.5, U (– $60,000) = 0.55, U (– $20,000) = 0.7, U (– $5,000) = 0.8, U ($0) = 0.81, U
Two states of nature exist for a particular situation: a good economy and a poor economy. An economic study may be performed to obtain more information about which of these will actually occur in the coming year. The study may forecast either a good economy or a poor economy. Currently there is a
The Long Island Life Insurance Company sells a term life insurance policy. If the policy holder dies during the term of the policy, the company pays $100,000. If the person does not die, the company pays out nothing and there is no further value to the policy. The company uses actuarial tables to
In Problem 3-35, you helped the medical professionals analyze their decision using expected monetary value as the decision criterion. This group has also assessed their utility for money: U (– $45,000) = 0, U (– $40,000) = 0.1, U (– $5,000) = 0.7, U ($0) = 0.9, U ($95,000) = 0.99 and U
In this chapter a decision tree was developed for John Thompson (Figure for the complete decision tree analysis). After completing the analysis, John was not completely sure that he is indifferent to risk. After going through a number of standard gambles, John was able to assess his utility for
In the past few years, the traffic problems in Lynn McKell’s hometown have gotten worse. Now, Broad Street is congested about half the time. The normal travel time to work for Lynn is only 15 minutes when Broad Street is used and there is no congestion. With congestion, however, it takes Lynn 40
Coren Chemical, Inc., develops industrial chemicals that are used by other manufacturers to produce photographic chemicals, preservatives, and lubricants. One of their products, K-1000, is used by several photographic companies to make a chemical that is used in the film-developing process. To
The Jamis Corporation is involved with waste management. During the past 10 years it has become one of the largest waste disposal companies in the Midwest, serving primarily Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan. Bob Jamis, president of the company, is considering the possibility of establishing a
Mary is considering opening a new grocery store in town. She is evaluating three sites: downtown, the mall, and out at the busy traffic circle. Mary calculated the value of successful stores at these locations as follows: downtown, $250,000; the mall, $300,000; the circle, $400,000. Mary calculated
Sue Reynolds has to decide if she should get information (at a cost of $20,000) to invest in a retail store. If she gets the information, there is a 0.6 probability that the information will be favorable and a 0.4 probability that the information will not be favorable. If the information is
After watching a movie about a young woman who quit a successful corporate career to start her own baby food company, Julia Day decided that she wanted to do the same. In the movie, the baby food company was very successful. Julia knew, however, that it is much easier to make a movie about a
What are the two basic laws of probability?
What is the meaning of mutually exclusive events? What is meant by collectively exhaustive? Give an example of each.
Describe the various approaches used in determining probability values.
Why is the probability of the intersection of two events subtracted in the sum of the probability of two events?
What is the difference between events that are dependent and events that are independent?
What is Bayes’ theorem, and when can it be used?
Describe the characteristics of a Bernoulli process. How is a Bernoulli process associated with the binomial distribution?
What is the difference between a discrete probability distribution and a continuous probability distribution? Give your own example of each.
What is the expected value, and what does it measure? How is it computed for a discrete probability distribution?
What is the variance, and what does it measure? How is it computed for a discrete probability distribution?
Name three business processes that can be described by the normal distribution.
After evaluating student response to a question about a case used in class, the instructor constructed the following probability distribution. What kind of probability distribution isit?
A student taking Management Science 301 at East Haven University will receive one of the five possible grades for the course: A, B, C, D, or F. The distribution of grades over the past two years is as follows:GRADE NUMBER OF STUDENTSA ..............80B ..............75C ..............90D
A silver dollar is flipped twice. Calculate the probability of each of the following occurring:(a) A head on the first flip(b) A tail on the second flip given that the first toss was a head(c) Two tails(d) A tail on the first and a head on the second(e) A tail on the first and a head on the second
An urn contains 8 red chips, 10 green chips, and 2 white chips. A chip is drawn and replaced, and then a second chip drawn. What is the probability of(a) A white chip on the first draw?(b) A white chip on the first draw and a red on the second?(c) Two green chips being drawn?(d) A red chip on the
Evertight, a leading manufacturer of quality nails, produces 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-inch nails for various uses. In the production process, if there is an overrun or the nails are slightly defective, they are placed in a common bin. Yesterday, 651 of the 1-inch nails, 243 of the 2-inch nails, 41 of
Last year, at Northern Manufacturing Company, 200 people had colds during the year. One hundred fifty-five people who did no exercising had colds, and the remainders of the people with colds were involved in a weekly exercise program. Half of the 1,000 employees were involved in some type of
The Springfield Kings, a professional basketball team, has won 12 of its last 20 games and is expected to continue winning at the same percentage rate. The team's ticket manager is anxious to attract a large crowd to tomorrow's game but believes that depends on how well the Kings perform tonight
David Mashley teaches two undergraduate statistics courses at Kansas College. The class for Statistics 201 consists of 7 sophomores and 3 juniors. The more advanced course, Statistics 301, has 2 sophomores and 8 juniors enrolled. As an example of a business sampling technique, Professor Mashley
The oasis outpost of Abu Ilan, in the heart of the Negev desert, has a population of 20 Bedouin tribesmen and 20 Farima tribesmen. El Kamin, a nearby oasis, has a population of 32 Bedouins and 8 Farima. A lost Israeli soldier, accidentally separated from his army unit, is wandering through the
The lost Israeli soldier mentioned in Problem 2-21 decides to rest for a few minutes before entering the desert oasis he has just found. Closing his eyes, he dozes off for 15 minutes, wakes, and walks toward the center of the oasis. The first person he spots this time he again recognizes as a
Ace Machine Works estimates that the probability its lathe tool is properly adjusted is 0.8. When the lathe is properly adjusted, there is a 0.9 probability that the parts produced pass inspection. If the lathe is out of adjustment, however, the probability of a good part being produced is only
The Boston South Fifth Street Softball League consists of three teams: Mama's Boys, team 1; the Killers, team 2; and the Machos, team 3. Each team plays the other teams just once during the season. The win-loss record for the past 5 years is as follows:Each row represents the number of wins over
The schedule for the Killers next year is as follows (refer to Problem 2-24): Game 1: The Machos Game 2: Mama's Boys(a) What is the probability that the Killers will win their first game?(b) What is the probability that the Killers will win their last game?(c) What is the probability that the
The Northside Rifle team has two markspersons, Dick and Sally. Dick hits a bull's-eye 90% of the time, and Sally hits a bull's-eye 95% of the time.(a) What is the probability that either Dick or Sally or both will hit the bull's-eye if each takes one shot?(b) What is the probability that Dick and
In a sample of 1,000 representing a survey from the entire population, 650 people were from Laketown, and the rest of the people were from River City. Out of the sample, 19 people had some form of cancer. Thirteen of these people were from Laketown.(a) Are the events of living in Laketown and
Compute the probability of "loaded die, given that a 3 was rolled," as shown in Example 7, this time using the general form of Bayes' theorem from Equation 2-7.
Which of the following are probability distributions? Why? (a)RANDOM VARIABLE X PROBABILITY2 ................... 0.1–1 ................. 0.20 ................... 0.31 ................... 0.252 ................... 0.15(b)RANDOM VARIABLE Y PROBABILITY1 ................... 1.11.5
Harrington Health Food stocks 5 loaves of Neutro-Bread. The probability distribution for the sales of Neutro-Bread is listed in the following table. How many loaves will Harrington sell on average?NUMBER OF LOAVES SOLD PROBABILITY0
What are the expected value and variance of the following probability distribution?RANDOM VARIABLE X PROBABILITY1 ................0.052 ................0.053 ................0.104 ................0.105 ................0.156 ................0.157 ................0.258 ................0.15
There are 10 questions on a true-false test. A student feels unprepared for this test and randomly guesses the answer for each of these.(a) What is the probability that the student gets exactly 7 correct? (b) What is the probability that the student gets exactly 8 correct? (c) What is the
Gary Schwartz is the top salesman for his company. Records indicate that he makes a sale on 70% of his sales calls. If he calls on four potential clients, what is the probability that he makes exactly 3 sales? What is the probability that he makes exactly 4 sales?
If 10% of all disk drives produced on an assembly line are defective, what is the probability that there will be exactly one defect in a random sample of 5 of these? What is the probability that there will be no defects in a random sample of 5?
Trowbridge Manufacturing produces cases for personal computers and other electronic equipment. The quality control inspector for this company believes that a particular process is out of control. Normally, only 5% of all cases are deemed defective due to discolorations. If 6 such cases are sampled,
Refer to the Trowbridge Manufacturing example in Problem 2-35. The quality control inspection procedure is to select 6 items, and if there are 0 or 1 defective cases in the group of 6, the process is said to be in control. If the number of defects is more than 1, the process is out of control.
An industrial oven used to cure sand cores for a factory manufacturing engine blocks for small cars is able to maintain fairly constant temperatures. The temperature range of the oven follows a normal distribution with a mean of 450°F and a standard deviation of 25°F. Leslie Larsen, president of
Steve Goodman, production foreman for the Florida Gold Fruit Company, estimates that the average sale of oranges is 4,700 and the standard deviation is 500 oranges. Sales follow a normal distribution.(a) What is the probability that sales will be greater than 5,500 oranges?(b) What is the
Susan Williams has been the production manager of Medical Suppliers, Inc., for the past 17 years. Medical Suppliers, Inc., is a producer of bandages and arm slings. During the past 5 years, the demand for No-Stick bandages has been fairly constant. On the average, sales have been about 87,000
Armstrong Faber produces a standard number-two pencil called Ultra-Lite. Since Chuck Armstrong started Armstrong Faber, sales have grown steadily. With the increase in the price of wood products, however, Chuck has been forced to increase the price of the Ultra-Lite pencils. As a result, the demand
The time to complete a construction project is normally distributed with a mean of 60 weeks and a standard deviation of 4 weeks.(a) What is the probability the project will be finished in 62 weeks or less?(b) What is the probability the project will be finished in 66 weeks or less?(c) What is the
A new integrated computer system is to be installed worldwide for a major corporation. Bids on this project are being solicited, and the contract will be awarded to one of the bidders. As a part of the proposal for this project, bidders must specify how long the project will take. There will be a
Patients arrive at the emergency room of Costa Valley Hospital at an average of 5 per day. The demand for emergency room treatment at Costa Valley follows a Poisson distribution.(a) Using Appendix C, compute the probability of exactly 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 arrivals per day.(b) What is the sum of
Using the data in Problem 2-43, determine the probability of more than 3 visits for emergency room service on any given day.
Cars arrive at Carla's Muffler shop for repair work at an average of 3 per hour, following an exponential distribution.(a) What is the expected time between arrivals?(b) What is the variance of the time between arrivals?
A particular test for the presence of steroids is to be used after a professional track meet. If steroids are present, the test will accurately indicate this 95% of the time. However, if steroids are not present, the test will indicate this 90% of the time (so it is wrong 10% of the time and
Market Researchers, Inc., has been hired to perform a study to determine if the market for a new product will be good or poor. In similar studies performed in the past, whenever the market actually was good, the market research study indicated that it would be good 85% of the time. On the other
Policy Pollsters is a market research firm specializing in political polls. Records indicate in past elections, when a candidate was elected, Policy Pollsters had accurately predicted this 80 percent of the time and they were wrong 20% of the time. Records also show for losing candidates, Policy
Burger City is a large chain of fast-food restaurants specializing in gourmet hamburgers. A mathematical model is now used to predict the success of new restaurants based on location and demographic information for that area. In the past, 70% of all restaurants that were opened were successful. The
A mortgage lender attempted to increase its business by marketing its subprime mortgage. This mortgage is designed for people with a less-than-perfect credit rating, and the interest rate is higher to offset the extra risk. In the past year, 20% of these mortgages resulted in foreclosure as
Use the F table in Appendix D to find the value of F for the upper 5% of the F distribution with(a) df1 = 5, df2 = 10(b) df1 = 8, df2 = 7(c) df1 = 3, df2 = 5(d) df1 = 10, df2 = 4
Use the F table in Appendix D to find the value of F for the upper 1% of the F distribution with(a) df1 = 15, df2 = 6(b) df1 = 12, df2 = 8(c) df1 = 3, df2 = 5(d) df1 = 9, df2 = 7
For each of the following F values, determine whether the probability indicated is greater than or less than 5%: (a) P(F3,4 > 6.8)(b) P(F7,3 > 3.6)(c) P(F20,20 > 2.6)(d) P(F7,5 > 5.1)(e) P(F7,5 < 5.1)
For each of the following F values, determine whether the probability indicated is greater than or less than 1%:(a) P(F5,4 > 14)(b) P(F6,3 > 30)(c) P(F10,12 > 4.2)(d) P(F2,3 > 35)(e) P(F2,3 < 35)
Nite Time Inn has a toll-free telephone number so that customers can call at any time to make a reservation. A typical call takes about 4 minutes to complete, and the time required follows an exponential distribution. Find the probability that(a) A call takes 3 minutes or less(b) A call takes 4
During normal business hours on the east coast, calls to the toll-free reservation number of the Nite Time Inn arrive at a rate of 5 per minute. It has been determined that the number of calls per minute can be described by the Poisson distribution. Find the probability that in the next minute, the
In the Arnold's Muffler example for the exponential distribution in this chapter, the average rate of service was given as 3 per hour, and the times were expressed in hours. Convert the average service rate to the number per minute and convert the times to minutes. Find the probabilities that the
WTVX, Channel 6, is located in Eugene, Oregon, home of the University of Oregon's football team. The station was owned and operated by George Wilcox, a former Duck (University of Oregon football player). Although there were other television stations in Eugene, WTVX was the only station that had a

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