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Statistics
Being a student, you probably have well-developed feelings about homework. Given the same amount of material learned, the less the better, right? (I thought so!) Define homework as the number of
We usually think of utility functions as always sloping upward(more is better) or downward (less is better — fewer nuclear power plant disasters, for example). But this is not always the case. In
In a court case, a plaintiff claimed that the defendant should pay her$3 million for damages. She did not expect the judge to award her this amount; her expected value actually was $1 million. The
From a decision-analysis perspective, why is it worthwhile to spend time studying the kinds of paradoxes described in this chapter?
Most people are learning constantly about themselves and their environment. Our tastes develop and change as our environment changes. As new technologies arise, new risks are discovered. What are the
a. Find the value for p that makes you indifferent between Lottery 1 Win $1,000 with probability p Win $0 with probability 1 – p And Lottery 2 Win $400 for sure b. Now find the q that makes you
We used the phrase “rules for clear thinking” to refer to the axioms described in this chapter. However, these “rules” do not cover every aspect of decision making as we have discussed it in
A classified advertisement, placed by a car dealer, reads as follows: *NEW* 2012 BMW 525i Retail $48,838.50 WAS $37,998 NOW $37,498 a. What is your reaction to this advertisement? b. In the same
Why is it important to think carefully about decision situations that involve multiple conflicting objectives?
Explain in your own words why the lottery method works to produce meaningful weights for evaluating alternatives.
Suppose that you are searching for an apartment in which to live while you go to school. Apartments near campus generally cost more than equivalent apartments farther away. Five apartments are
A friend of yours is in the market for a new computer. Four different machines are under consideration. The four computers are essentially the same, but they vary in price and reliability. The least
Continuing Problem 16.13, the computers are described as follows:A. Price: $998.95 Expected number of days in the shop per year: 4B. Price: $1,300.00 Expected number of days in the shop per year: 2C.
You are an up-and-coming developer in downtown Seattle and are interested in constructing a building on a site that you own. You have collected four bids from prospective contractors. The bids
What is important to you in choosing a job? Certainly salary is important, and for many people location matters a lot. Other considerations might involve promotion potential, the nature of the work,
Explain the general decision-analysis approach to dealing with multiple objectives.
Refer to the discussion of the automobiles in the section on “Trading Off Conflicting Objectives: The Basics.” We discussed switching first from the Standard to the Norushi, and then from the
Refer to the discussion of the automobiles in the section on "TradingOff Conflicting Objectives: The Basics." We discussed switching first from the Standard to the Norushi, and then from the Norushi
Following up Problem 16.22, even though we take riskiness into account, there still is difficulty with NPV as a decision criterion. Sup-pose that you are facing the two risky projects shown in Figure
Instead of calculating a “discounted” utility as we did in Problem 16.23, let us consider calculating U(NPV). That is, calculate NPV first, using an appropriate interest rate, and then calculate
A policy maker in the Occupational Safety and Health Administration is under pressure from industry to permit the use of certain chemicals in a newly developed industrial process. Two different
Refer to the discussion of the three automobiles in the section Trading Off Conflicting Objectives: The Basics. Suppose we had the following individual utility functions for
Refer to Table 16.6. Your boss is a member of the library-sites election committee. She is not perfectly satisfied with the assessments shown in the table. Specifically, she wonders to what extent
Refer to Problem 16.11. Suppose that the decision maker has made a third assessment, concluding that she is indifferent between E Win the best possible combination with probability 0.18. Win the
Explain what is meant by the term indifference curve.
Imagine that you are working on a committee to develop an employment-conditions policy for your firm. During the discussion of safety, one committee member states that employee safety is twice as
Explain why proportional scores represent a risk attitude that is risk-neutral.
An MBA student evaluating weather outcomes for an upcoming party has concluded that a sunny day would be twice as good as a cloudy day, and a cloudy day would be three times as good as a rainy day.
Explain in your own words why swing weights produce meaningful weights for evaluating alternatives.
A decision maker is assessing weights for two attributes using the swing-weight method. When he imagines swinging the attributes individually from worst to best, he concludes that his improvement in
Explain what is meant when we speak of interaction between attributes. Why would the additive utility function from Chapter 16 be inappropriate if two attributes interact?
Someday you probably will face a choice among job offers. Aside from the nature of the job itself, two attributes that are important for many people are salary and location. Some people prefer large
Refer to Problem 16.17. For some of the attributes in your computer decision, you face uncertainty. The additive utility function assessed in Problem 16.17 essentially assumes that additive
In many cases a group of people must make a decision that involves multiple objectives. In fact, difficult decisions usually are dealt with by committees composed of individuals who represent
What are the advantages and disadvantages of directly assessing a multi attribute utility function?
Explain preferential independence in your own words. Can you cite an example from your own experience in which preferential independence holds? Can you cite an example in which it does not hold?
Explain in your own words the difference between preferential independence and utility independence.
Explain in your own words the difference between utility independence and additive independence. Why is it important to understand the concept of additive independence?
Suppose that a company would like to purchase a fairly complicated machine to use in its manufacturing operation. Several different machines are available, and their prices are more or less
A hospital administrator is making a decision regarding the hospital’s policy of treating individuals who have no insurance coverage. The policy involves examination of a prospective patient’s
Suppose you face an investment decision in which you must think about cash flows in two different years. Regard these two cash flows as two different attributes, and let X represent the cash flow in
Define decision modeling. What are some of the organizations that support the use of the scientific approach?
Define decision variable. Give some examples of variables in a decision model.
What is a problem parameter? Give some examples of parameters in a decision model.
List some advantages of using spreadsheets for decision modeling.
What is implementation, and why is it important?
Describe the use of sensitivity analysis, or post optimality analysis, in analyzing the results of decision models.
Managers are quick to claim that decision modelers talk to them in a jargon that does not sound like English. List four terms that might not be understood by a manager. Then explain in nontechnical
Why do you think many decision analysts don’t like to participate in the implementation process? What could be done to change this attitude?
Should people who will be using the results of a new modeling approach become involved in the technical aspects of the problem-solving procedure?
C. W. Churchman once said that “mathematics tends to lull the unsuspecting into believing that he who thinks elaborately thinks well.” Do you think that the best decision models are the ones that
A Website has a fixed cost $15,000 per day. The revenue is $0.06 each time the Website is accessed. The variable cost of responding to each hit is $0.02. (a) How many times must this Website be
What is the difference between deterministic and probabilistic models? Give several examples of each type of model.
An electronics firm is currently manufacturing an item that has a variable cost of $0.60 per unit and selling price of $1.10 per unit. Fixed costs are $15,500. Current volume is 32,000 units. The
A manufacturer is evaluating options regarding his production equipment. He is trying to decide whether he should refurbish his old equipment for $70,000, make major modifications to the production
Refer to Problem 1-22. Sensing resistance to the idea of raising tuition from members of St. Joseph’s Church, one of the board members suggested that the 960 children of church members could pay
Refer to Problems 1-22 and 1-23. Another board member believes that if church members pay $8,000 in tuition, the most St. Joseph's can increase non-member tuition is $1,000 per year. She suggests
Great Lakes Automotive is considering producing, in-house, a gear assembly that it currently purchases from Delta Supply for $6 per unit. Great Lakes estimates that if it chooses to manufacture the
A start-up publishing company estimates that the fixed costs of its first major project will be $190,000, the variable cost will be $18, and the selling price per book will be $34. (a) How many books
The electronics firm in Problem 1-20 is now considering purchasing the new equipment and increasing the selling price of its product to $1.20 per unit. Even with the price increase, the new volume is
A distributer of prewashed shredded lettuce is opening a new plant and considering whether to use a mechanized process or a manual process to prepare the product. The manual process will have a fixed
A fabrication company must replace its widget machine and is evaluating the capabilities of two available machines. Machine A would cost the company $75,000 in fixed costs for the first year. Each
What are the differences between quantitative and qualitative factors that may be present in a decision model?
Bismarck Manufacturing intends to increase capacity through the addition of new equipment. Two vendors have presented proposals. The fixed cost for proposal A is $65,000, and for proposal B, $34,000.
Why might it be difficult to quantify some qualitative factors in developing decision models?
What steps are involved in the decision modeling process? Give several examples of this process.
Why is it important to have an iterative process between the steps of the decision modeling approach?
Briefly trace the history of decision modeling. What happened to the development of decision modeling during World War II?
What different types of models are mentioned in this chapter? Give examples of each.
A bank is retrofitting part of its vault to hold safety deposit boxes. It plans to build safety deposit boxes approximately 6 feet high along the walls on both sides of a 20-foot corridor. Hence, the
An investment broker has been given $250,000 to invest in a 12-month commitment. The money can be placed in Treasury notes (with a return of 8% and a risk score of 2) or in municipal bonds (with a
A wooden furniture company manufactures two products, benches and picnic tables, for use in yards and parks. The firm has two main resources: its carpenters (labor force) and a supply of redwood for
A plumbing manufacturer makes two lines of bathtubs, model A and model B. Every tub requires blending a certain amount of steel and zinc; the company has available a total of 24,500 pounds of steel
A technical college department head must plan the course offerings for the next term. Student demands make it necessary to offer at least 20 core courses (each of which counts for 3 credit hours) and
The size of the yield of olives in a vineyard is greatly influenced by a process of branch pruning. If olive trees are pruned, trees can be planted more densely, and output is increased. (However,
Cattle are sent to a feedlot to be grain-fed before being processed into beef. The owners of a feedlot seek to determine the amounts of cattle feed to buy so that minimum nutritional standards are
The production department for an aluminum valve plant is scheduling its work for next month. Each valve must go through three separate machines during the fabrication process. After fabrication, each
The bank in Problem 2-31 now wants to add a minisize box, which will rent for $17 per year and consume 43.2 square inches of wall space. The bank still wants a total of at least 350 total boxes; of
A photocopy machine company produces three types of laser printers—the Print Jet, the Print Desk, and the Print Pro—the sale of which earn profits of $60, $90, and $73, respectively. The Print
An electronics corporation manufactures four highly technical products that it supplies to aero-space firms. Each of the products must pass through the following departments before being shipped:
A snack company packages and sells three different 1-pound canned party mixes: Plain Nuts, Mixed Nuts, and Premium Mix. Plain Nuts sell for $2.25 per can, Mixed Nuts sell for $3.37, and Premium Nuts
An investor is considering three different television news stocks to complement his portfolio: British Broadcasting Company (BBC), Canadian Broad-casting Company (CBC), and Australian Broadcasting
The mathematical relationships that follow were formulated by an operations research analyst at the Smith-Lawton Chemical Company. Which ones are invalid for use in an LP problem? Why?Maximize profit
How do computers aid in solving LP problems today?
Explain why knowing how to use Excel to set up and solve LP problems may be beneficial to a manager.
It is important to understand the assumptions underlying the use of any quantitative analysis model. What are the assumptions and requirements for an LP model to be formulated and used?
How is the slack (or surplus) calculated for a constraint? How is it interpreted?
What is an unbounded solution? How does Solver indicate that a problem solution is unbounded?
Solve the following LP problem by using the graphical procedure and by using Excel:Maximize profit = 2X + YSubject to the constraints
Solve the following LP problem by using the graphical procedure and by using Excel: Maximize profit = 4X + 5y Subject to the constraints 5X + 2y < 40 3X + 6y < 30 X 3 x,y >0
Solve the following LP problem by using the graphical procedure and by using Excel: Maximize profit = 4X + 3y Subject to the constraints 2X + 4y 27 —3x + ioy > 0 x,y >0
Solve the following LP problem by using the graphical procedure and by using Excel: Minimize cost = 4X + 7 Y subject to the constraints 2X + 3y > 60 4X + 2y > 80 X 0
Solve the following LP problem by using the graphical procedure and by using Excel: Minimize cost = 3X + 7 Y Subject to the constraints 9X + 3y > 36 4X + 5y > 40 x - y < 0 2X 0
Solve the following LP problem by using the graphical procedure and by using Excel: Minimize cost = 4X + 7 Y Subject to the constraints 3X + 6y > 100 10X + 2y > 160 2y > 40 2X0
Solve the following LP problem, which involves three decision variables, by using Excel:Maximize profit = 20A + 25B + 30CSubject to the constraints
Consider the following four LP formulations. Using a graphical approach in each case, determine (a) Which formulation has more than one optimal solution. (b) Which formulation has an unbounded
A decorating store specializing in do-it-your-self home decorators must decide how many information packets to prepare for the summer decorating season. The store managers know they will require at
The advertising agency promoting a new product is hoping to get the best possible exposure in terms of the number of people the advertising reaches. The agency will use a two-pronged approach:
A small motor manufacturer makes two types of motor, models A and B. The assembly process for each is similar in that both require a certain amount of wiring, drilling, and assembly. Each model A
The manufacturer in Problem 2-24 now has a standing order of 24 model A motors for each production period. Resolve Problem 2-24 to include this additional constraint. In problem 2-24 A small motor
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