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Managerial Decision Modeling With Spreadsheets 3rd Edition Nagraj Balakrishnan, Barry Render, Jr. Ralph M. Stair - Solutions

After observing the heavy snow that his town received the previous winter, Ajay Patel, an enterprising student, plans to offer a snow-clearing service in his neighborhood this winter. If he invests in a new heavy-duty blower, Ajay forecasts a profit of $700 if snowfall this winter is heavy, a
Oscar Weng is planning to raise funds to pay for a scouting trip by running a concession stand during tomorrow’s high school soccer game. Oscar needs to decide whether to rent a large insulated thermos from the local rental store and sell cocoa at the game or to rent a large refrigerated
You have been hired by the No Flight Golf Company, and your first task is to decide whether to market a new golf ball utilizing breakthrough technology and, if so, determine the price. The payoff of your decision will be affected by whether your competitor will market similar balls and the price of
Rob Johnson is a product manager for Diamond Chemical. The firm is considering whether to launch a new product line that will require building a new facility. The technology required to produce the new product is yet untested. If Rob decides to build the new facility and the process is successful,
Rob Johnson (see Problem 8-34) has some revised information concerning the accuracy of the pilot plant probabilities. According to his new information, the probability that the pilot plant will be successful, given that the full-scale facility will work, is 0.8. The probability that the pilot plant
You are reconsidering your analysis of the tennis wager between you and your partner (see Problem 8-33) and have decided to incorporate utility theory into the decision making process.€ƒThe following table describes your utility values for various payoffs:(a) Redo Problem 8-35 using this
Shamrock Oil owns a parcel of land that has the potential to be an underground oil field. It will cost $500,000 to drill for oil. If oil does exist on the land, Shamrock will realize a payoff of $4,000,000 (not including drilling costs). With current information, Shamrock estimates that there is a
Shamrock Oil (see Problem 8-37) has some revised information concerning the accuracy of the geological test probabilities. According to this new information, the probability that the test will be positive, given that oil is present in the ground, is 0.85. The probability that the test will be
Shamrock Oil (see Problem 8-37) has decided to rely on utility theory to assist in the decision concerning the oil field. The following table describes its utility function; all monetary values are in thousands of dollars:(a) Redo Problem 8-37 using this information.(b) How can you best describe
Jim Sellers is thinking about producing a new type of electric razor for men. If the market is good, he would get a return of $140,000, but if the market for this new type of razor is poor, he would lose $84,000. Because Ron Bush is a close friend of Jim Sellers, Jim is considering the possibility
Jason Scott has applied for a mortgage to purchase a house, and he will go to settlement in two months. His loan can be locked in now at the current market interest rate of 7% and a cost of $1,000. He also has the option of waiting one month and locking in the rate available at that time at a
Jason Scott (see Problem 8-42) has decided to incorporate utility theory into his decision with his mortgage application. The following table describes Jason€™s utility function:(a) How can you best describe Jason€™s attitude toward risk? Justify your answer.(b) Will the use of utilities
An investor is deciding whether to build a retail store. If she invests in the store and it is successful, she expects a return of $100,000 in the first year. If the store is not successful, she will suffer a loss of $80,000. She guesses that the probability that the store will be a success is
Replace all monetary values in Problem 8-44 with the following utilities:(a) What do you recommend, based on expected utility?(b) Is the investor a risk seeker or a risk avoider? Justify your answer.
Before market research was done, Peter Martin believed that there was a 50-50 chance that his food store would be a success. The research team determined that there was a 0.75 probability that the market research would be favorable, given a successful food store. Moreover, there was a 0.65
A market research company has approached you about the possibility of using its services to help you decide whether to launch a new product. According to its customer portfolio, it has correctly predicted a favorable market for its clients’ products 14 out of the last 16 times. It has also
Lathum Consulting is an econometrics research firm that predicts the direction of the gross national product (GNP) during the next quarter. More specifically, it forecasts whether the GNP will grow, hold steady, or decline. The following table describes Lathum€™s track record from past
State the meanings of EMV and EVPI.
Under what conditions is a decision tree preferable to a decision table?
What is a queuing problem? What are the components in a queuing system?
The Edge Convenience Store has approximately 300 customers shopping in its store between 9 A.M. and 5 P.M. on Saturdays. In deciding how many cash registers to keep open each Saturday, Edge’s manager considers two factors: customer waiting time (and the associated waiting cost) and the service
The people staffing the ticket booth at an aquarium are able to distribute tickets and brochures to 440 patrons every hour, according to an exponential distribution. On a typical day, an average of 352 people arrive every hour to gain entrance to the aquarium. The arrivals have been found to follow
A computer processes jobs on a first-come, first- served basis in a time-sharing environment. The jobs have Poisson arrival rates, with an average of six minutes between arrivals. The objective in processing these jobs is that they spend no more than eight minutes, on average, in the system. How
An agent in a train station sells tickets and provides information to travelers. An average of two travelers approach the agent for assistance each minute. Their arrival is distributed according to a Poisson distribution. The agent is able to meet the travelers’ needs in approximately 20 seconds,
A restaurant’s reservation agent takes reservations for dinner by telephone. If he is already on the phone when a patron calls to make a reservation, the incoming call is answered automatically, and the customer is asked to wait for the agent. As soon as the agent is free, the patron who has been
Sal (see Problem 9-18) is considering changing the queuing characteristics of his shop. Instead of selecting a number for the first available barber, a customer will be able to select which barber he or she prefers upon arrival. Assuming that this selection does not change while the customer is
Carlos Gomez is the receiving supervisor for a large grocery store. Trucks arrive to the loading dock at an average rate of four per hour, according to a Poisson distribution, for 8 hours each day. The cost of operating a truck is estimated to be $80 per hour. Trucks are met by a three-person crew,
A local office of the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) wishes to overcome the reputation of making citizens wait in line for extremely long times before being able to conduct their business. Accordingly, the DMV is analyzing how best to serve the driving public. Its goal is to make sure that
Julian is considering putting the second technician in another office on the other end of the building, so that access to a computer technician is more convenient for the agents. Assume that the other agent will also have the ability to repair a computer in 50 minutes and that each faulty computer
Bru Thru is a chain of drive-through beer and wine outlets where customers arrive, on average, every five minutes. Management has a goal that customers will be able to complete their transaction, on average, in six minutes with a single server. Assume that this system can be described as an M/M/l
Recreational boats arrive at a single gasoline pump located at the dock at Trident Marina at an average rate of 10 per hour on Saturday mornings. The fill up time for a boat is normally distributed, with an average of 5 minutes and a standard deviation of 1.5 minutes. Assume that the arrival rate
A chemical plant stores spare parts for maintenance in a large warehouse. Throughout the working day, maintenance personnel go to the warehouse to pick up supplies needed for their jobs. The warehouse receives a request for supplies, on average, every 2 minutes. The average request requires 1.7
During peak times the entry gate at a large amusement park experiences an average arrival of 500 customers per minute, according to a Poisson distribution. The average customer requires four seconds to be processed through the entry gate. The park’s goal is to keep the waiting time less than five
Customers arrive at Valdez’s Real Estate at an average rate of one per hour. Arrivals can be assumed to follow the Poisson distribution. Juan Valdez, the agent, estimates that he spends an average of 30 minutes with each customer. The standard deviation of service time is 15 minutes, and the
If Valdez wants to ensure that his customers wait an average of around 10 minutes, what should be his average service time? Assume that the standard deviation of service time remains at 15 minutes.
Customers arrive at an automated coffee vending machine at a rate of 4 per minute, following a Poisson distribution. The coffee machine dispenses a cup of coffee at a constant rate of 10 seconds. (a) What is the average number of people waiting inline? (b) What is the average number of people in
Chuck’s convenience store has only one gas pump. Cars pull up to the pump at a rate of one car every eight minutes. Depending on the speed at which the customer works, the pumping time varies. Chuck estimates that the pump is occupied for an average of five minutes, with a standard deviation of
Get Connected, Inc., operates several Internet kiosks in Atlanta, Georgia. Customers can access the Web at these kiosks, paying $2 for 30 minutes or a fraction thereof. The kiosks are typically open for 10 hours each day and are always full. Due to the rough usage these PCs receive, they break down
A construction company owns six backhoes, which each break down, on average, once every 10 working days, according to a Poisson distribution. The mechanic assigned to keeping the backhoes running is able to restore a backhoe to sound running order in 1 day, according to an exponential
A copier repair person is responsible for servicing the copying machines for seven companies in a local area. Repair calls come in at an average of one call every other day. The arrival rate follows the Poisson distribution. Average service time per call, including travel time, is exponentially
The Johnson Manufacturing Company operates six identical machines that are serviced by a single technician when they break down. Breakdowns occur according to the Poisson distribution and average 0.03 breakdowns per machine operating hour. Average repair time for a machine is five hours and follows
A clerk of court is responsible for receiving and logging legal documents that are to be placed before the various judges to review and sign. She receives these documents on a first come, first served basis. Lawyers’ couriers arrive before the clerk at an average rate of eight per hour, according
County General Hospital’s cardiac care unit (CCU) has seven beds, which are virtually always occupied by patients who have just undergone heart surgery. Two registered nurses are on duty at the CCU in each of the three 8-hour shifts. On average, a patient requires a nurse’s attention every 66
Do you think the Poisson distribution, which assumes independent arrivals, is a good estimation of arrival rates in the following queuing systems? Defend your position in each case. (a) Cafeteria in your school (b) Barbershop (c) Hardware store (d) Dentist’s office (e) College class (f) Movie
How might drawing a flow diagram help in developing a simulation model?
List the advantages of using an Excel add-in pro-gram rather than using Excel’s built-in functions to develop a simulation model.
Do you think we can use Excel’s Solver to solve simulation models? Why or why not?
Weekly demand for tennis balls at The Racquet Club is normally distributed, with a mean of 35 cases and a standard deviation of 5 cases. The club gets a profit of $50 per case.(a) Simulate 52 weeks of demand and calculate the average weekly profit. Make all demand values integers in your model.(b)
Edward Owen is responsible for the maintenance, rental, and day-to-day operation of several large apartment complexes on the upper-east side of New York City. Owen is especially concerned about the cost projections for replacing air conditioner (A/C) compressors. He would like to simulate the
Jay€™s Appliances sells micro-fridges according to the monthly demand distribution shown in the table at the top of the next page. Simulate 6 years of demand and compare theoretical and simulated results for the following measures:(a) Average demand.(b) Probability that demand will be
Shawn Bishop, a neuroscience PhD student at Clarksville University, has been having problems balancing his checkbook. His monthly income is derived from a graduate research assistant ship; however, he also makes extra money in most months by tutoring undergraduates in their introductory
Chelsea Truman sells celebrity magazines on Sunday morning in an area surrounded by three busy shopping centers. Demand for the magazines is distributed as shown in the following table:Chelsea has decided to order 100 magazines from her supplier. Chelsea pays $2 for each magazine she orders and
The Paris Bakery has decided to bake 30 batches of its famous beignets at the beginning of the day. The store has determined that daily demand will follow the dishibutius shown in the following table:Each batch costs the Paris Bakery $50 and can be sold for $100. The Paris Bakery can sell any
Lionel’s Life Jacket Rentals leases life jackets each day from a supplier and rents them to customers who use them when they raft down the Delaware River. Each day, Lionel leases 30 lifejackets from his supplier, at a cost of $4 per life jacket. He rents them to his customers for $15 per day.
Kirkpatrick Aircrafts operates a large number of computerized plotting machines. For the most part, the plotting devices are used to create line drawings of complex wing airfoils and fuselage part dimensions. The engineers operating the automated plotters are called loft lines engineers. The
Dr. Carter Logue practices dentistry in Santa Fe, New Mexico. Logue tries hard to schedule appointments so that patients do not have to wait beyond their appointment time. His October 20 schedule is shown in the following table:Unfortunately, not every patient arrives exactly on schedule. Also,
Lee Appliances knows that weekly demand for high-end microwaves is normally distributed, with a mean of 25 units and a standard deviation of 7 units. (In your model use integers for all demands.) Lee replenishes its inventory by ordering 300 units from the distributor whenever its current inventory
Mattress Heaven orders a certain brand of mattress from its supplier and sells the mattresses at its retail location. The store currently orders 400 mattresses whenever the inventory level drops to 200. The cost to hold 1 mattress in inventory for one day is $0.75. The cost to place an order with
Consider the Mattress Heaven problem described in Problem 10-25. (a) Mattress Heaven would like to evaluate ordering 350,400,450, and 500 mattresses when the reorder point of 200 is reached. Based on the average total quarterly cost, which order quantity would you recommend? (b) Mattress Heaven
Music Mania sells MP3 players to its customers. Music Mania orders 300 MP3 players from its supplier when its inventory reaches 80 units. Daily demand for MP3 players is discrete, uniformly distributed between 30 and 60 (both inclusive). The lead time from the supplier also varies for each order
Consider the Music Mania problem described in Problem 10-27. (a) Music Mania would like to evaluate ordering 250, 300, 350, and 400 MP3 players when the reorder point of 80 is reached. Based on the average total quarterly cost, which order quantity would you recommend? (b) Music Mania would like to
Troy€™s Tires sells a certain brand tire which has a daily demand that is normally distributed, with a mean of 15 tires and a standard deviation of 4 tires. (In your model use integers for all demands.) Troy€™s Tires replenishes its inventory by ordering 250 tires from the
10-30 Ashcroft Airlines flies a six-passenger commuter fight once a day to Gainesville, Florida. A nonrefundable one-way fare with a reservation costs $129. The daily demand for this flight is given in the following table, along with the probability distribution of no-shows (where a no-show has a
Winston-Salem’s general hospital has an emergency room that is divided into six departments: (1) the initial exam station, to treat minor problems and make diagnoses; (2) an x-ray department; (3) an operating room; (4) a cast-fitting room; (5) an observation room for recovery and general
Management of Charlottesville Bank is concerned about a loss of customers at its main office downtown. One solution that has been proposed is to add one or more drive-through teller windows to make it easier for customers in cars to obtain quick service without parking. Neha Patel, the bank
Erik Marshall owns and operates one of the largest BMW auto dealerships in St. Louis. In the past 36 months, his weekly sales of Z3s have ranged from a low of 6 to a high of 12, as reflected in the following table:Erik believes that sales will continue during the next 24 months at about the same
Jesse’s Plumbing Service’s monthly demand follows a discrete uniform distribution between 40 and 55 jobs. The probability that a specific job will be for minor service (e.g., clogged sink) is 0.65, and the probability that it will be for a major service (e.g., flooded basement) is 0.35.
Sydney Garner is considering building a 300- seat amphitheater in a popular park. After studying the market, Sydney has drawn the following conclusions: • There will be one show every night during summer months • The theater will make a profit of $1 on each occupied seat and suffer a loss of
Wang’s Concrete Service notes that the number of jobs each month follows the following distribution: 10 with probability 0.15, 11 with probability 0. 20, 12 with probability 0.20, 13 with probability 0.20, 14 with probability 0.15, and 15 with probability 0.10. The probability that a specific job
The Decatur Fire Department makes annual door to-door solicitations for funds. Residents of each visited house are asked to contribute $15 (and receive a free family portrait package), $25 (and receive two free family portrait packages), or $35 (and receive three free family portrait packages). An
A local bank has a single drive-through window with arrival times and service times that follow the distributions from the following table:Simulate the arrival of 200 customers to compute each of the following measures: (a) average time a customer waits for service, (b) average time a customer is
Colin sells pretzels at the local high school basketball games. For an upcoming game, Colin has to decide how many pretzels to order (170, 190, or 210), at a cost of $0.50 each. Colin sells pretzels for $1.50 each. However, any unsold pretzels must be thrown away. If the game is interesting, Colin
The Diego Street Convenience Store has a single checkout register, with customer arrival distribution shown in the following table:Service time follows a discrete uniform distribution between 1 and 4 minutes. Simulate the arrival of 200 customers to compute the average time a customer waits for
Zodiac Chemical manufactures chlorine gas by passing electricity through saltwater in a diaphragm cell. The plant has 88 diaphragm cells that operate in parallel. Each cell can produce 5 tons of chlorine gas per day, and each ton of chlorine gas has a profit contribution of $15. Due to the harsh
Make a Splash T-Shirts is planning to print and sell specially designed tee shirts for the upcoming World Series. The shirts will cost $12 each to produce and can be sold for 30 each until the World Series. After the World Series, the price will be reduced to $20 per shirt. The demand at the $30
Phillip Florrick is responsible for the warehouse operation for a local discount department store chain. The warehouse has only one unloading dock that is currently operated by a single three- person crew. Trucks arrive at an average rate of five per hour and follow the exponential probability
A customer service counter at a local bookstore is normally staffed by a single employee. The probabilities of arrival times and service times are shown in the following table:Simulate the arrival of 100 customers to compute the average number of customers in line and the probability that a
Timberwolves Electric and Wiring Company installs wiring and electrical fixtures in residential construction. Andrew Dickel, the owner of Timberwolves, has been concerned with the amount of time it takes to complete wiring jobs because some of his workers are very unreliable. For each wiring job, a
A plant engineering group needs to set up an assembly line to produce a new product. The following table describes the relationships between the activities that need to be completed for this product to be manufactured:If using Crystal Ball, assume that the duration of each activity follows a
Luna Martinez, director of personnel at Management Resources, Inc., is in the process of designing a program that its customers can use in the job-finding process. Some of the activities include preparing resumes, writing letters, making appointments to see prospective employers, researching
Lamont Henri needs to plan and manage a local construction project. The following table describes the relationships between the activities that need to be completed:If using Crystal Ball, assume that the actual duration of each activity follows a BetaPert distribution, with the three time estimates
Elena Wilhelm is responsible for developing a comprehensive sales training program for her organization. The following table describes the relationships between the activities that need to be completed:Assume that the actual duration of each activity follows a discrete uniform distribution between
Lynn Rogers (who just turned 30) currently earns $60,000 per year. At the end of each calendar year, she plans to invest 10% of her annual income in a tax-deferred retirement account. Lynn expects her salary to grow between 0% and 8% each year, following a discrete uniform distribution between
Adams College has a self-insured employee health care plan. Each employee pays a monthly premium of $100. Adams pays the rest of the health care costs. The number of covered employees is 1,000 this year. Each year, the number of employees who have major health claims follows a continuous uniform
Would the average output value in a simulation problem change appreciably if a longer period were simulated? Why or why not?
Describe how you can use charts to determine whether a forecasting model is valid.
What is a correlation coefficient? Why is it useful?
Explain how Solver can be used to identify the optimal weights in the weighted moving average model.
McCall€™s Garden Supply has seen the following annual demand for lime bags over the past 11 years:(a) Develop 2-year, 3-year, and 4-year moving averages to forecast demand in year 12. (b) Forecast demand with a 3-year weighted moving average in which demand in the most recent year is
Jeannette Phan is a college student who has just completed her junior year. The following table summarizes her grade point average (GPA) for each of the past nine semesters:(a) Forecast Jeannette€™s GPA for the fall semester of her senior year by using a three-period moving average. (b)
Daily sales volume for Nilgiris Convenience Store is shown in the following table:Develop two-day, three-day, and four-day moving averages to forecast the sales for each day. What is the forecast for day 11 in each case?
Consider the data given in Problem 11-15 for Nilgiris Convenience Store. (a) If the store wants to use exponential smoothing to forecast the sales volume, what is the optimal value of a that would minimize MAPE? What is the forecast for day 11 using this model? (b) If the store wants to use linear
The following table shows the number of Blu-ray DVD players that Electronic Depot has sold during the past 12 weeks:Develop 2-week, 3-week, and 4-week moving averages to forecast the sales for each week. What is the forecast for week 13 in each case?
Consider the data given in Problem 11-17 for Blu-ray DVD player sales at Electronic Depot. (a) If Electronic Depot decides to forecast sales by using a three-period weighted moving average, what are the optimal weights that minimize MAPE? What would be the week 13 forecast using these weights? (b)
Sales of Hot-Blast heaters have grown steadily during the past five years, as shown in the following table: YEAR SALES 1 ………………………… 480 2 ………………………… 525 3 ………………………… 548 4 ………………………… 593 5
Highland Automotive wishes to forecast the number of new cars that will be sold next week. The following table summarizes the number of new cars sold during each of the past 12 weeks:(a) Provide a forecast by using a 3-week weighted moving average technique with weights 5, 3, and 1 (5 = most
Calls to a college emergency hotline for the past months are as follows (with the earliest month shown first): 50, 35, 25, 40, 45, 35, 20, 30, 35, 20, 15, 40, 55, 35, 25, 55, 55,40, 35, 60, 75, 50,40,42, 51, 22, 38,45, and 65. (a) Assuming an initial forecast of 55 calls for month 1, use
Passenger miles flown on I-Go Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub, are as follows for the past 12 weeks:(a) Assuming an initial forecast of 22,000 miles for week 1, use exponential smoothing with a = 0.3, 0.6, and 0.8 to forecast miles for weeks 2 through 12. What is the forecast for
Rental income at the Walsh Real Estate Company for the period February-July has been as follows:(a) Use exponential smoothing with a = 0.2 and 0.4 to forecast August€™s income. Assume that the initial forecast for February is $78,000. (b) Which smoothing constant provide a better
Commuter ridership in Athens, Greece, during the summer months is believed to be heavily tied to the number of tourists visiting the city. During the past 12 years, the data in the table at the top of the next page have been obtained.(a) Use trend analysis to forecast ridership in years 13, 14, and

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