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Statistics Data Analysis And Decision Modeling 5th Edition James R. Evans - Solutions

The State of Ohio Department of Education has a mandated ninth‐grade proficiency test that covers writing, reading, mathematics, citizenship (social studies), and science. The Excel file Ohio Education Performance provides data on success rates (defined as the percentage of students passing) in
A mental health agency measured the self‐esteem score for randomly selected individuals with disabilities who were involved in some work activity within the past year. The Excel file Self‐Esteem provides the data, including the individuals’ marital status, length of work, type of support
A national homebuilder builds single‐family homes and condominium‐style townhouses. The Excel file House Sales provides information on the selling price, lot cost, type of home, and region of the country (M = Midwest, S = South) for closings during one month.a. Develop a multiple regression
Cost functions are often nonlinear with volume because production facilities are often able to produce larger quantities at lower rates than smaller quantities. Using the following data, apply simple linear regression, and examine the residual plot. What do you conclude? Construct a scatter chart
The Helicopter Division of Aerospatiale is studying assembly costs at its Marseilles plant. Past data indicates the following labor hours per helicopter:Helicopter NumberLabor Hours12,00021,40031,23841,14251,07561,02979858957Using these data, apply simple linear regression, and
The managing director of a consulting group has the following to bill to clients:TotalBillable$340,000 3,000$400,000 4,000$435,000 5,000$477,000 6,000$529,000 7,000$587,000 8,000Develop a regression model to identify the fixed overhead costs to the consulting group.a. What is the
Use the 2010 data in the Excel files S&P 500 and Google Stock Prices to find the beta risk of Google stock using simple linear regression. How do you interpret your result?
Choose a stock of interest and historical daily data on its closing values for 2009 through October 1, 2010. Use the Excel file S&P 500 to find the beta risk of the stock using simple linear regression. How do you interpret your result?
Using the data in the Excel file Demographics, run a regression analysis using unemployment rate as the dependent variable and cost of living index as the independent variable. Interpret all key regression results, hypothesis tests, and confidence intervals in the output.
Using the data in the Excel file Student Grades, run a regression analysis using the midterm grade as the independent variable and the final exam grade as the dependent variable. Interpret all key regression results, hypothesis tests, and confidence intervals in the output.
The Excel file National Football League provides various data on professional football for the 2007 season.a. Construct a scatter diagram for Points/Game and Yards/Game in the Excel file. Does there appear to be a linear relationship?b. Develop a regression model for predicting Points/Game as a
Data collected in 1960 from the National Cancer Institute provides the per capita numbers of cigarettes sold along with death rates for various forms of cancer (see the Excel file Smoking and Cancer). Use simple linear regression to determine if a significant relationship exists between the number
The Excel file HATCO consists of data related to predict predicting the level of business (Usage Level) obtained from a survey of purchasing managers of customers of an industrial supplier, HATCO. The following are the independent variables.• Delivery Speed —amount of time it takes to deliver
Explain the differences between qualitative and judgmental, statistical time-series, and explanatory/causal forecasting models.
What are autoregressive models, and when should they be used?
How are dummy variables used in regression forecasting models with seasonality?
What is a causal variable in forecasting? Provide an example from your experience of some applications where causal variables might be used in a forecast.
Summarize some of the practical issues in using forecasting tools and approaches.
Describe some common forecasting approaches for judgmental forecasting.
How are indicators and indexes used in judgmental forecasting?
What are the primary components of time series?
Summarize statistical methods used in forecasting and the types of time series to which they are most appropriate.
Explain how a simple moving average is calculated.
List and define the three principal ways of measuring forecast accuracy. What are the key differences among them?
Explain the differences between moving average and exponential smoothing models.
What types of forecasting models are best for time series with trends and/or seasonality?
Find the best autoregressive model for each of the variables in the Excel file Retail Electricity Prices.a. Residentailb. Commercialc. Industrial
Find the best moving average and exponential smoothing models for each of the stocks in the Excel file Closing Stock Prices using CB Predictor. Compare your results to your answers to Problem 1.
Find the best moving average and exponential smoothing models for each of the stocks in the Excel file Baseball Attendance using CB Predictor. Compare your results to your answers to Problem 2.
Find the best moving average and exponential smoothing models for the male and female populations in the Excel file Ohio Prison Population using CB Predictor. Compare your results to your answers to Problem 3.
Find the best moving average and exponential smoothing models for forecasting gasoline prices in the Excel file Gasoline Prices using CB Predictor. Compare your results to your answers to Problem 4.
Construct a line chart for the data in the Excel file Arizona Population.a. Suggest the best-fitting functional form for forecasting these data.b. Use CB Predictor to find the best forecasting model.
Construct a line chart for each of the variables in the data file Death Cause Statistics, and suggest the best forecasting technique. Then apply CB Predictor to find the best forecasting models for these variables.a. Line chart for each of the variablesb. CB Predictor to find the best forecasting
Use CB Predictor to find the best forecasting model for the data in the following economic time series:a. New Car Salesb. Housing Startsc. Coal Consumptiond. DJIA December Closee. Federal Funds Ratesf. Mortgage Ratesg. Prime Rateh. Treasury Yield Rates
Find the best autoregressive model that includes a linear term for time for the Coal Production data as discussed in the chapter. Start with a third-order autoregressive model and compare your results to Figure 7.12.
Find the best autoregressive model for the closing price of the S&P 500 using the Excel file S&P 500.
The Excel file Energy Production & Consumption provides data on energy production, consumption, imports, and exports. You have been hired as an analyst for a government agency and have been asked to forecast these variables over the next five years. Apply forecasting tools and appropriate
What are some reasons that production output varies? Explain the difference between common causes of variation and special causes of variation.
Describe the steps involved in applying statistical process control.
Explain the difference between a run chart and a control chart.
List the principal rules for examining a control chart to determine if the process is in control.
Describe the common types of out-of-control conditions that one might find in a control chart.
What is process capability? How is it measured?
Find the upper and lower control limits for and R-charts for the width of a chair seat when the sample grand mean (based on 30 samples of six observations each) is 27.0 inches, and the average range is 0.35 inches.
Hunter Nut Company produces cans of mixed nuts, advertised as containing no more than 20% peanuts. Hunter Nut Company wants to establish control limits for their process to ensure meeting this requirement. They have taken 30 samples of 144 cans of nuts from the production process at periodic
A manufacturer of high-quality medicinal soap advertises its product as 99 and 44/100% free of medically offensive pollutants. Twenty-five samples of 100 bars of soap were gathered at the beginning of each hour of production; the numbers of bars not meeting this requirement are given in the
A warehouse double-checks the accuracy of its order fulfillment process each day. The data in the worksheet Problem 12 shows the number of orders processed each day and the number of inaccurate orders found. Construct a p -chart for these data and interpret the results.
Refer to the data in the worksheet Problem 8. Suppose that the specification limits for the process are 90 (lower) and 110 (upper). Compute the process capability index and interpret. Eliminate any out-of-control points first, if any are found.
Refer to the data in the worksheet Problem 9. Suppose that the specification limits for the process are 25 (lower) and 40 (upper). Compute the process capability index and interpret. Eliminate any out-of-control points first, if any are found.
Suppose that the sample grand mean (based on 25 samples of 10 observations each) for the weight of a package of cereal is 10.1 ounces and the average range is 0.4 ounces. Find the upper and lower control limits for x̅-and R-charts.
The sample grand mean (based on 30 samples of eight observations each) for the weight of a can of crabmeat is 0.503 pounds and the average range is 0.068 pounds. Find the upper and lower control limits for x̅- and R-charts.
If 30 samples of 100 items are tested for nonconformity, and 95 of the 3,000 items are defective, find the upper and lower control limits for a p-chart.
If 25 samples of 200 items are run through a battery of tests, and 120 of the 5,000 items are defective, calculate the upper and lower control limits for a p-chart.
Suppose that an operation produces output with a standard deviation of 0.35 pounds, with an upper specification limit of 8 pounds and the lower specification limit of 6 pounds. Compute the process capability index.
Suppose that the standard deviation of a machining process is 0.12 inch, and that the upper specification limit is 3.60 inches and the lower specification limit is 2.00 inches. What is the process capability index?
Compute control limits for x̅ and R-charts for the data in the worksheet Problem 8. Construct and interpret the charts.
Compute control limits for x̅ and R-charts for the data in the worksheet Problem 9. Construct and interpret the charts.
A manufacturer of commercial and residential lawn mowers has collected data from testing its products. These data are available in the Excel file Quality Control Case Data. The worksheet Blade Weight provides sample data from the manufacturing process of mower blades; Mower Test gives samples of
What is a decision model, and what are the three types of inputs common to decision models?
Describe how to use Excel data tables, Scenario Manager, and goal seek tools to analyze decision models.
Describe the reasons why a manager might use a heuristic instead of an optimization algorithm.
Summarize the important knowledge that you need to successfully build good decision models.
Explain basic spreadsheet engineering approaches for implementing decision models in Excel.
What does validity mean? How does it differ from verification? What issues must an analyst consider in building realistic models?
A local pharmacy orders 15 copies of a monthly magazine. Depending on the cover story, demand for the magazine varies. The pharmacy purchases the magazines for $2.25 and sells them for $5.00. Any magazines left over at the end of the month are donated to hospitals and other health care facilities.
Jennifer Bellin has been put in charge planning her company€™s annual leadership conference. The dates of the conference have been determined by her company€™s executive team. The table below contains information about the activities, predecessors, and activity times (in days):Develop a
A manufacturer is preparing to set the price on a new action game. Demand is thought to depend on the price and is represented by the model: D = 2,000 – 3.5PThe accounting department estimates that the total costs can be represented by: C = 5,000 + 4.1Da. Develop a model for the total profit and
A forest fire is burning down a narrow valley three miles wide at a speed of 40 feet per minute. The fire can be contained by cutting a firebreak through the forest across the valley. It takes 30 seconds for one person to clear one foot of the firebreak. The value of lost timber is $4,000 per
Monthly rent at an apartment complex is $500. Operating costs average $15,000 per month regardless of the number of units rented. Construct a spreadsheet model to determine the profit if 35 units are rented. The manager has observed that the number of units rented during any given month varies
Inventories represent a considerable investment for every organization; thus, it is important that they be managed well. Excess inventories can indicate poor financial and operational management. On the other hand, not having inventory when it is needed can also result in business failure. The two
Explain the concept of risk analysis and how Monte Carlo simulation can provide useful information for making decisions.
Outline the process for using Crystal Ball to run a Monte Carlo simulation.
Summarize the modeling and analysis tools available in Crystal Ball and what information they provide.
Financial analysts often use the following model to characterize changes in stock prices:whereP0 = current stock pricePt = price at time tμ = mean (logarithmic) change of the stock price per unit timeσ = (logarithmic) standard deviation of price changeZ = standard normal random variableThis model
Develop a Crystal Ball model for MasterTech with the following assumptions (all other data are as described in Problem 13, Chapter 9): Net sales are uniformly distributed between $600,000 and $1,200,000. Cost of sales is normally distributed, with a mean of $540,000 and a standard deviation of
Develop a Crystal Ball model for Koehler Vision Associates (KVA) in Problem 15 of Chapter 9 with the following assumptions: The weekly demand averages 175, but anywhere between 10% and 20% of prospective patients fail to show up or cancel their exam at the last minute. Determine the best level of
For the Hyde Park Surgery Center scenario described in Problem 19 in Chapter 9, suppose that the following assumptions are made: The number of patients served the first year is uniform between 1,300 and 1,700; the growth rate for subsequent years is triangular with parameters (5%, 8%, 9%), and the
Review the MBA’s retirement planning situation described in Chapter 9 ( Figure 9.16 ). Modify the spreadsheet to include the assumptions that the annual raise each year is triangular with a minimum of 1%, a most likely value of 3%, and a maximum value of 5%, and that the investment return each
Refer back to the college admission director scenario (Problem 20 in Chapter 9). Develop a spreadsheet model and apply Crystal Ball tools to make a recommendation on how many scholarships to offer.
The data in the Excel file Real Estate Sales represent the annual sales of 100 branch offices of a national real estate company. Use the Crystal Ball distribution fitting procedure to find the best-fitting distribution for these data.
The data in the Excel file Technical Support Data represent a sample of the number of minutes spent resolving customer support issues for a computer manufacturer. Use the Crystal Ball distribution fitting procedure to find the best-fitting distribution for these data.
A sporting goods store orders ski jackets in the summer before the winter season. Each jacket costs $80 and sells for $200. Any not sold by March are discounted 75%. Demand depends on the weather. The distribution of demand is triangular (but must be whole numbers) with a minimum of 40, a maximum
A plant manager is considering investing in a new $30,000 machine. Use of the new machine is expected to generate a cash flow of about $8,000 per year for each of the next five years. However, the cash flow is uncertain, and the manager estimates that the actual cash flow will be normally
Jennifer Bellin (Problem 18 in Chapter 9) believes that the activity times for her project are uncertain. The worksheet Problem 19 in the Excel file Chapter 10 Problem Data contains information about the activities, predecessors, and activity times in the worksheet Problem 19. Assume a BetaPERT
The Miller-Orr model in finance addresses the problem of managing its cash position by purchasing or selling securities at a transaction cost in order to lower or raise its cash position. That is, the firm needs to have enough cash on hand to meet its obligations, but does not want to maintain too
A software development project consists of six activities. The activities and their predecessor relationships are given in the following table. The worksheet Problem 20 in the Excel file Chapter 10 Problem Data provides a sample of times in weeks for activities A, B, E, and F from 40 past
For the stock broker problem described in Problem 16 in Chapter 9, assume that among the qualified clients, half will invest between $2,000 and $10,000, 25% will invest between $10,000 and $25,000, 15% will invest between $25,000 and $50,000, and the remainder will invest between $50,000 and
For the nonprofit ballet company in Problem 17 of Chapter 9, assume following percentages of donors and gift levels:Gift LevelAmountNumber of GiftBenefactor$10,0001-3Philanthropist$5,0003-7Producer's Circle$1,00016-25Director's Circle$50031-40Principal$1005-7% of solicitationsSoloist$505-7% of
Arbino Mortgage Company obtains business from direct marketing letters signed by a fictitious loan officer named Jackson Smith. The percentages of interested responses from Jackson Smith letters are triangular with parameters 1%, 1.2%, and 2%. Of those responding, the percentage of respondents that
For the Moore Pharmaceuticals model, suppose that analysts have made the following assumptions:R&D costs: Triangular ($500, $700, $800) in millions of dollarsClinical trials costs: Triangular ($135, $150, $160) in millions of dollarsMarket size: Normal (2,000,000, 250,000)Market share in year
For the Outsourcing Decision Model, suppose that the demand volume is lognormally distributed with a mean of 1,500 and a standard deviation of 500. What is the distribution of the cost differences between manufacturing in-house and purchasing? What decision would you recommend? Define both the cost
For the Airline Pricing Model in Chapter 9, suppose that the fixed cost is triangular with a minimum of $80,000, most likely value of $90,000, and maximum value of $95,000. Also assume that the values of the slope and intercept in the demand function are uniformly distributed plus or minus 5%
Using the generic profit model developed in the section Logic and Business Principles in Chapter 9, develop a financial simulation model for a new product proposal and construct a distribution of profits under the following assumptions: Price is fixed at $1,000. Unit costs are unknown and follow
The manager of the apartment complex in Problem 9 of Chapter 9 believes that the number of units rented during any given month has a triangular distribution with minimum 30, most likely 34, and maximum 40. Operating costs follow a normal distribution with mean $15,000 and a standard deviation of
Develop a Crystal Ball model for the garage band in Problem 11 in Chapter 9 with the following assumptions. The expected crowd is normally distributed with a mean of 3,000 and a standard deviation of 400 (minimum of 0). The average expenditure on concessions is also normally distributed with mean
Develop a Crystal Ball model for a three-year financial analysis of total profit based on the following data and information. Sales volume in the first year is estimated to be 100,000 units and is projected to grow at a rate that is normally distributed with a mean of 7% per year and a standard
J&G Bank receives a large number of credit card applications each month, an average of 30,000 with a standard deviation of 4,000, normally distributed. Approximately 60% of them are approved, but this typically varies between 50% and 70%. Each customer charges a total of $2,000, normally
Describe the types of decisions that do not involve uncertainty and risk and common approaches used for analyzing them.
Explain the components of a decision tree and how optimal decisions are computed.
Explain how payback period, NPV, and IRR criteria are used in decision making.

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