Answer the following questions using the data from the Excel file Deloitte xlsx from Problem 16 36 a Using exponential smoothing with 0 6, forecast the percentage of holiday shoppers who intend to spend less in 2018 b Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part a c Using exponential smoothing with trend adjustment, 0 6 and 0 4, forecast the percentage of holiday shoppers who intend to spend less in 2018 d Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part c e Which forecast do you have most confidence in Year Percentage Year Percentage 2010 38 2014 31 2011 42 2015 25 2012 37 2016 26 2013 29 2017 21

Question: Answer the following questions using the data from the Excel file Deloitte.xlsx from Problem 16.36. a. Using exponential smoothing with = 0.6, forecast the

Answer the following questions using the data from the Excel file Deloitte.xlsx from Problem 16.36.

Year Percentage Year Percentage 2010 38 2014 31 2011 42 2015 25 2012 37 2016 26 2013 29 2017 21

a. Using exponential smoothing with α = 0.6, forecast the percentage of holiday shoppers who intend to spend less in 2018.

b. Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part a.

c. Using exponential smoothing with trend adjustment, α = 0.6 and β = 0.4, forecast the percentage of holiday shoppers who intend to spend less in 2018.

d. Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part c.

e. Which forecast do you have most confidence in?

Year Percentage Year Percentage 2010 38 2014 31 2011 42 2015 25 2012 37 2016 26 2013 29 2017 21

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