Based on your answers to Problems 11.89 and 11.90, make a projection of the incidence rate of diabetes mellitus during the period 1995ˆ’1999, and provide a 95% confidence interval about this estimate?

Diabetes

The Mayo Clinic is based in Rochester, Minnesota. Residents of Rochester and surrounding areas get almost all their medical care at the Mayo Clinic. In addition, migration in and out of Rochester is relatively low. This makes it feasible to track disease history over time and to assess whether the incidence of disease has changed over time. The data in Table 11.27 were presented concerning the incidence of diabetes over time among Rochester, Minnesota, residents ages 30 and over [19].

Table 11.27: Age-adjusted incidence of diabetes mellitus among Rochester, Minnesota, residents, age ‰¥ 30 years from 1970ˆ’1994

 

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Time period Time-period score Annual incidence 1970-1974 240.4 1975–1979 2 243.1 1980–1984 3 256.7 1985–1989 4 315.9 371.8 1990–1994 Mean 285.6 3.0 sd 1.58 57.1