Question: Skyfall, a global security company, is considering building a new plant (Plant 1) to take advantage of innovations in surveillance technology. In about three years

Skyfall, a global security company, is considering building a new plant (Plant 1) to take advantage of innovations in surveillance technology. In about three years the plant capacity may be expanded to allow Skyfalls entry into a new market (Plant 2). The cost of capital for this project is 12%. The long-term growth rate of the cash flows of the project is 5%. The standard deviation of the project value is 40% and the risk-free rate is 5.5% per year. What is the value of this option to expand?

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Plant 1

EBIT*(1-t)

2.2

4

5

7

7.6

8.5

Depreciation

19

21

21

22

22.5

22.5

Capex

120

8.1

9.5

10

11.4

12

12

NWC

25

4.1

5.5

5

6

6

6.3

Plant 2

EBIT*(1-t)

4.5

6.1

8.9

Depreciation

24.3

25.6

27.5

Capex

307

4.6

4.3

5

NWC

75

1.1

2

3.4

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