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Introduction to Management Science 11th Edition Bernard W. Taylor - Solutions

Tech has a student population of 30,000 and is located in a small college town in Virginia. DirectCast Cable TV has a small service staff or three installation trucks and technicians that is sufficient to handle service calls and installations for almost the entire year. However, for the month-long
In Problem 55, as an alternative to borrowing trucks and crews from other offices (which can be costly), DirectCast is considering extending the normal workday to 16 hours and paying its own technicians overtime. Would this satisfy demand to the extent that additional trucks and crews would not
In Problem 28, when the students come back for fall semester, the Sub Shop experiences a large increase in demand for about a month before it begins to level off again, such that the number of phone orders increases to an average of 8 per hour (Poisson distributed). If the shop now assumes that
In Problem 54 the passenger traffic arriving at the airport security gate varies significantly during the day. At times close to flight takeoffs, the traffic is very heavy, while at other times there is little or no passenger traffic through the security gate. At the times leading up to flight
The inland port at Front Royal, Virginia, is a transportation hub that primarily transfers shipping containers from trucks coming from eastern seaports to rail cars for shipment to inland destinations. Containers arrive at the inland ports at a rate of eight per hour. It takes 28 minutes
The Old Colony theme park has a new ride, the Double Cyclone. The ride holds 30 people in double roller coaster cars, and it takes 3.8 minutes to complete the ride circuit. It also takes the ride attendants another 3 minutes (with virtually no variation) to load and unload passengers. Passengers
The Hoylake Rescue Squad receives an emergency call every 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 hours, according to the following probability distribution. The squad is on duty 24 hours per day, 7 days per week:Time BetweenEmergency Calls (hr.) ........ Probability1 ................. .052 ................. .103
The time between arrivals of cars at the Petroco Service Station is defined by the following probability distribution:Time BetweenArrivals (min.) ......... Probability1 ............... .152 .............. .303 .............. .404 .............. .15
The Dynaco Manufacturing Company produces a product in a process consisting of operations of five machines. The probability distribution of the number of machines that will break down in a week follows:Machine Breakdownsper Week ......... Probability0 ............ .101 ........... .102 ............
Solve Problem 19 at the end of Chapter 12 by using simulation.
Simulate the decision situation described in Problem 16(a) at the end of Chapter 12 for 20 weeks, and recommend the best decision.
Every time a machine breaks down at the Dynaco Manufacturing Company (Problem 3), either 1, 2, or 3 hours are required to fix it, according to the following probability distribution:Repair Time (hr.) .... Probability1 ......... .302 ......... .503 ......... .20
Sound Warehouse in Georgetown sells CD players (with speakers), which it orders from Fuji Electronics in Japan. Because of shipping and handling costs, each order must be for five CD players. Because of the time it takes to receive an order, the warehouse outlet places an order every time the
First American Bank is trying to determine whether it should install one or two drive-through teller windows. The following probability distributions for arrival intervals and service times have been developed from historical data:Time BetweenAutomobile Arrivals (min.) .. Probability1
The time between arrivals of oil tankers at a loading dock at Prudhoe Bay is given by the following probability distribution:Time Between Ship Arrivals (days) . Probability1 ......... .052 ......... .103 ......... .204 .......... .305 .......... .206 .......... .107 .......... .05
The Saki automobile dealer in the Minneapolis–St. Paul area orders the Saki sport compact, which gets 50 miles per gallon of gasoline, from the manufacturer in Japan. However, the dealer never knows for sure how many months it will take to receive an order once it is placed. It can take 1, 2, or
State University is playing Tech in their annual football game on Saturday. A sportswriter has scouted each team all season and accumulated the following data: State runs four basic plays—a sweep, a pass, a draw, and an off tackle; Tech uses three basic defenses—a wide tackle, an Oklahoma, and
Each semester, the students in the college of business at State University must have their course schedules approved by the college adviser. The students line up in the hallway outside the adviser’s office. The students arrive at the office according to the following probability distribution:Time
A city is served by two newspapers€”the Tribune and the Daily News. Each Sunday readers purchase one of the newspapers at a stand. The following matrix contains the probabilities of a customer€™s buying a particular newspaper in a week, given the newspaper purchased the previous
Loebuck Grocery orders milk from a dairy on a weekly basis. The manager of the store has developed the following probability distribution for demand per week (in cases):Demand (cases) ...... Probability15 ........... .2016 ........... .2517 ........... .4018 ........... .15
The Paymore Rental Car Agency rents cars in a small town. It wants to determine how many rental cars it should maintain. Based on market projections and historical data, the manager has determined probability distributions for the number of rentals per day and rental duration (in days only) as
A CPM/PERT project network has probabilistic activity times (x) as shown on each branch of the network; for example, activity 1€“3 has a .40 probability that it will be completed in 6 weeks and a .60 probability it will be completed in 10 weeks:Simulate the project network 10 times and
A robbery has just been committed at the Corner Market in the downtown area of the city. The market owner was able to activate the alarm, and the robber fled on foot. Police officers arrived a few minutes later and asked the owner, “How long ago did the robber leave?” “He left only a few
Compcomm, Inc., is an international communications and information technology company that has seen the value of its common stock appreciate substantially in recent years. A stock analyst would like to use simulation to predict the stock prices of Compcomm for an extended period.Based on historical
The emergency room of the community hospital in Farmburg has one receptionist, one doctor, and one nurse. The emergency room opens at time zero, and patients begin to arrive some time later. Patients arrive at the emergency room according to the following probability distribution:Time
The Western Outfitters Store specializes in denim jeans. The variable cost of the jeans varies according to several factors, including the cost of the jeans from the distributor, labor costs, handling, packaging, and so on. Price also is a random variable that varies according to competitors’
Randolph College and Salem College are within 20 miles of each other, and the students at each college frequently date each other. The students at Randolph College are debating how good their dates are at Salem College. The Randolph students have sampled several hundred of their fellow students and
In Problem 21, discuss how you might assess the accuracy of the average rating for Salem College students based on only 20 simulated dates.
A baseball game consists of plays that can be described as follows:Distributions for these plays for two teams, the White Sox (visitors) and the Yankees (home), are asfollows:
For the Bigelow Manufacturing example in this chapter, re-create the simulation shown in Table 14.10 and Exhibit 14.7 using Crystal Ball. Assume that the repair time is normally distributed with a mean of 2.15 days and a standard deviation of 0.8 day. Assume that the time between breakdowns is
For the Bigelow Manufacturing example in this chapter, re-create the simulation for the improved maintenance program shown in Table 14.11 and Exhibit 14.8 using Crystal Ball. For the improved program assume that the repair time is normally distributed with a mean of 1.70 days and a standard
Erin Jones has $100,000 and, to diversify, she wants to invest equal amounts of $50,000 each in two mutual funds selected from a list of four possible mutual funds. She wants to invest for a 3-year period.She has used historical data from the four funds plus data from the market to determine the
The Management Science Association (MSA) has arranged to hold its annual conference at the Riverside Hotel in Orlando next year. Based on historical data, the MSA believes the number of rooms it will need for its members attending the conference is normally distributed, with a mean of 800 and a
In Chapter 8, Figure 8.6 shows a simplified project network for building a house, as follows:There are four paths through this network:Path A: 1€“2€“3€“4€“6€“7Path B:
James Banks was standing in line next to Robin Cole at Klecko's Copy Center, waiting to use one of the copy machines."Gee, Robin, I hate this," he said. "We have to drive all the way over here from Southgate and then wait in line to use these copy machines. I hate wasting time like this.""I know
Concerned about recent weather-related disasters, fires, and other calamities at universities around the country, university administrators at Tech have initiated several planning projects to determine how effectively local emergency facilities can handle such situations. One of these projects has
The Saki motorcycle dealer in the Minneapolis–St. Paul area wants to make an accurate forecast of demand for the Saki Super TXII motorcycle during the next month. Because the manufacturer is in Japan, it is difficult to send motorcycles back or reorder if the proper number is not ordered a month
The manager of the Carpet City outlet needs to make an accurate forecast of the demand for Soft Shag carpet (its biggest seller). If the manager does not order enough carpet from the carpet mill, customers will buy their carpet from one of Carpet City’s many competitors. The manager has collected
The Fastgro Fertilizer Company distributes fertilizer to various lawn and garden shops. The company must base its quarterly production schedule on a forecast of how many tons of fertilizer will be demanded from it. The company has gathered the following data for the past 3 years from its sales
The chairperson of the department of management at State University wants to forecast the number of students who will enroll in production and operations management (POM) next semester, in order to determine how many sections to schedule. The chair has accumulated the following enrollment data for
The manager of the Petroco Service Station wants to forecast the demand for unleaded gasoline next month so that the proper number of gallons can be ordered from the distributor. The owner has accumulated the following data on demand for unleaded gasoline from sales during the past 10 months:Month
The Victory Plus Mutual Fund of growth stocks has had the following average monthly price for the past 10 months:Month ........ Fund Price1 ........... 62.72 ........... 63.93 ........... 68.04 ........... 66.45 ........... 67.26 ........... 65.87 ........... 68.28 ........... 69.39
The Bayside Fountain Hotel is adjacent to County Coliseum, a 24,000-seat arena that is home to the city’s professional basketball and ice hockey teams and that hosts a variety of concerts, trade shows, and conventions throughout the year. The hotel has experienced the following occupancy rates
Emily Andrews has invested in a science and technology mutual fund. Now she is considering liquidating and investing in another fund. She would like to forecast the price of the science and technology fund for the next month before making a decision. She has collected the following data on the
Eurotronics manufactures components for use in small electronic products such as computers, CD players, and radios at plants in Belgium, Germany, and France. The parts are transported by truck to Hamburg, where they are shipped overseas to customers in Mexico, South America, the United States, and
The Whistle Stop Cafe in Weems, Georgia, is well known for its popular homemade ice cream, made in a small plant in back of the cafe. People drive all the way from Atlanta and Macon to buy the ice cream. The two women who own the cafe want to develop a forecasting model so they can plan their ice
For the demand data in Problem 11, develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for year 4. (Use a linear trend line model to develop a forecast estimate for year 4.) Which forecast model do you perceive to be more accurate: the exponential smoothing model from Problem 11 or the seasonally adjusted
Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the demand data for fertilizer found in Problem 3.Then use a linear trend line model to compute a forecast estimate for demand in year 4.
Monaghan€™s Pizza delivery service has randomly selected 8 weekdays during the past month and recorded orders for pizza at four different time periods per day:Develop a seasonally adjusted forecasting model for daily pizza demand and forecast demand for each of the time periods for a
The Cat Creek Mining Company mines and ships coal. It has experienced the following demand for coal during the past 8 years:Year ..... Coal Sales (tons)1 ....... 4,2602 ....... 4,5103 ...... 4,0504 ....... 3,7205 ...... 3,9006 ...... 3,4707 ...... 2,8908 ....... 3,100Develop an adjusted exponential
The River is a literary magazine published by the English Department at Tech. It has a 70-year history and enjoys an excellent reputation for providing a literary outlet for aspiring Appalachian writers in particular. However, its sales, mostly through independent bookstores and college libraries,
The Beaver Creek Pottery Company sells bowls and mugs, hand-made by Native American artisans, at a craft store and through a Web site. Making these items requires a special type of clay and a large amount of individual person-hours, so for planning purposes, the company would like to forecast
The Northwoods Outdoor Company is a catalog sales operation that specializes in outdoor recreational clothing. Demand for its items is very seasonal, peaking during the Christmas season and during the spring. It has accumulated the following data for orders per season (quarter) during the past 5
Metro Food Vending operates vending machines in office buildings, the airport, bus stations, colleges, and other businesses and agencies around town, and it operates vending trucks for building and construction sites. The company believes its sandwich sales follow a seasonal pattern. It has
The Hillsboro Aquatic Center has an indoor pool with lanes for lap swimming and an open area for recreational swimming and various exercise and water aerobics programs. From June to mid-August it operates on a summer schedule, and from mid-August to the end of May it operates according to normal
Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast (a = .30, b = .20) for the annual pool attendance data in Problem 20. Does this forecast appear to be more or less accurate than the linear trend line model for forecasting annual pool attendance developed in Problem 20?
The emergency room at the new Community Hospital selected every other week during the past 5 months to observe the number of patients during two parts of each week€”the weekend (Friday through Sunday) and weekdays (Monday through Thursday). They typically experience greater patient
Aztec Industries has developed a forecasting model that was used to forecast during a 10-month period. The forecasts and actual demand were as follows:Measure the accuracy of the forecast by using MAD, MAPD, and cumulative error. Does the forecast method appear to beaccurate?
RAP Computers assembles personal computers from generic parts it purchases at a discount, and it sells the units by phone orders it receives from customers responding to the company€™s ads in trade journals. The business has developed an exponential smoothing forecast model to forecast
Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with a = .20 for the demand data in Problem 1. Compare this forecast with the 3-month moving average computed in part (a) of Problem 1, using MAD, and indicate which forecast seems to be more accurate.
The Jersey Dairy Products Company produces cheese, which it sells to supermarkets and food processing companies. Because of concerns about cholesterol and fat in cheese, the company has seen demand for its products decline during the past decade. It is now considering introducing some alternative
The manager of the Ramona Inn Hotel near Cloverleaf Stadium believes that how well the local Blue Sox professional baseball team is playing has an impact on the occupancy rate at the hotel during the summer months. Following are the number of victories for the Blue Sox (in a 162-game schedule) for
Carpet City wants to develop a means to forecast its carpet sales. The store manager believes that the store’s sales are directly related to the number of new housing starts in town. The manager has gathered data from county records on monthly house construction permits and from store records on
The DirectCast cable TV company is a national chain that services the small college town that is home to Tech, with a student population of almost 30,000. The company has generally been able to handle service calls and installations in the past, but a growth trend in the town and occasional
Bell Inc. is a computer company that gets most of its component parts from suppliers in Southeast Asia, who ship to small warehouses called €œrevolvers€ (for revolving inventory) near Bell€™s main assembly plants near Fort Worth, Texas. Bell withdraws inventory for
The manager of Gilley€™s Ice Cream Parlor needs an accurate forecast of the demand for ice cream. The store orders ice cream from a distributor a week ahead; if the store orders too little, it loses business, and if it orders too much, the extra must be thrown away. The manager believes
Administrators at State University believe that decreases in the number of freshman applications that they have experienced are directly related to tuition increases. They have collected the following enrollment and tuition data for the past decade:a. Develop a linear regression model for these
Develop a linear trend line model for the freshman applications data at State University in Problem 33.a. Does this forecast appear to be more or less accurate than the linear regression forecast developed in Problem 33 Justify your answer.b. Compute the correlation coefficient for the linear trend
Some members of management of the Fairface Cosmetics Firm believe that demand for its products is related to the promotional activities of local department stores where the cosmetics are sold. However, others in management believe that other factors, such as local demographics, are stronger
Employees at Precision Engine Parts Company produce parts according to exact design specifications. The employees are paid according to a piece-rate system, wherein the faster they work and the more parts they produce, the greater their chances for monthly bonuses. Management suspects that this
The Gametime Hat Company manufactures baseball caps that have various team logos in an assortment of designs and colors. The company has had monthly sales for the past 24 months as follows:Month ........ Demand (1,000s)1 ........... 8.22 ........... 7.53 ........... 8.14 ........... 9.35
Infoworks is a large computer discount store that sells computers and ancillary equipment and software in the town where State University is located. Infoworks has collected historical data on computer sales and printer sales for the past 10 years, as follows:a. Develop a linear trend line forecast
Develop an exponential smoothing model with a = .30 for the data in Problem 40 to forecast printer demand in year 11 and compare its accuracy to the linear trend line forecast developed in (a).
Arrow Air is a regional East Coast airline that has collected data for the percentage available seats occupied on its flights for four quarters€”(1) January€“March, (2) April€“June, (3) July€“September, and (4) October€“December€”for the
The consumer loan department at Central Union Bank and Trust wants to develop a forecasting model to help determine its potential loan application volume for the coming year. Because adjustable-rate home mortgages are based on government long-term treasury note rates, the department collected the
The busiest time of the day at the Taco Town fast-food restaurant is between 11:00 A.M. and 2:00 P.M. Taco Town€™s service is very labor dependent, and a critical factor for providing quick service is the number of employees on hand during this 3-hour period. To determine the number of
In order to take advantage of the burgeoning public interest in sustainability, Klorax has developed a nonsynthetic line of natural cleaning products called GreenClean. One of the first sustainable products Klorax introduced was a natural cold-water detergent. The company has now gathered several
In Problem 46, one of the new products in the GreenClean line that Klorax is ready to introduce is an all-purpose cleaner, and Klorax is attempting to forecast what demand might be like 5 years into the future. However, it has no historical demand data to use to develop a forecast model. The
The Valley United Soccer Club has boys€™ and girls€™ travel soccer teams at all age levels up to 18 years. The club has been successful and grown in popularity over the years; however, an obstacle to its continued growth is a shortage of practice and game soccer fields in the
The admission data for freshmen at Tech during the past 10 years are as follows:Tech€™s admission objective is a class of 5,000 entering freshmen, and Tech wants to forecast the percentage of offers it will likely have to make in order to achieve this objective.a. Develop a linear trend
The State of Virginia has instituted a series of standards of learning (SOL) tests in math, history, English, and science that all high school students must pass with a grade of 70 before they are allowed to graduate and receive their diplomas. The school superintendent of Montgomery County
In Problem 40, Infoworks believes its printer sales are also related to the average price of its printers. It has collected historical data on average printer prices for the past 10 years, as follows:Average PrinterYear ......... Price1 .......... $4752 ............ 4903 ............ 5204
The manager of the Bayville police department motor pool wants to develop a forecast model for annual maintenance on police cars, based on mileage in the past year and age of the cars. The following data have been collected for eight different cars:a. Using Excel, develop a multiple regression
The dean of the college of business at Tech has initiated a fund-raising campaign. One of then selling points he plans to use with potential donors is that increasing the college€™s private endowment will improve its ranking among all business schools, as published each year by the
During the past few years, the legislature has severely reduced funding for State University. In reaction, the administration at State has significantly raised tuition each year for the past 5 years. Perceived as a bargain 5 years ago, State is now considered one of the more expensive
The University Bookstore is owned and operated by State University through an independent corporation with its own board of directors. The bookstore has three locations on or near the State University campus. It stocks a range of items, including textbooks, trade books, logo apparel, drawing and
Since the terrorist attacks of 9/11 and because of the ensuing measures to increase airline security, airports have faced the problem of long waiting lines and waiting times at security gates. Waiting lines can be as long as hundreds of yards, and waiting times can sometimes be hours. In their
Hayes Electronics stocks and sells a particular brand of personal computer. It costs the firm $450 each time it places an order with the manufacturer for the personal computers. The cost of carrying one PC in inventory for a year is $170. The store manager estimates that total annual demand for the
Hayes Electronics in Problem 1 assumed with certainty that the ordering cost is $450 per order and the inventory carrying cost is $170 per unit per year. However, the inventory model parameters are frequently only estimates that are subject to some degree of uncertainty. Consider four cases of
A firm is faced with the attractive situation in which it can obtain immediate delivery of an item it stocks for retail sale. The firm has therefore not bothered to order the item in any systematic way. Recently, however, profits have been squeezed due to increasing competitive pressures, and the
The Western Jeans Company purchases denim from Cumberland Textile Mills. The Western Jeans Company uses 35,000 yards of denim per year to make jeans. The cost of ordering denim from the textile company is $500 per order. It costs Western $0.35 per yard annually to hold a yard of denim in inventory.
The Metropolitan Book Company purchases paper from the Atlantic Paper Company. Metropolitan produces magazines and paperbacks that require 1,215,000 pounds of paper per year. The cost per order for the company is $1,200; the cost of holding 1 pound of paper in inventory is $0.08 per year. Determine
The Simple Simon Bakery produces fruit pies for freezing and subsequent sale. The bakery, which operates 5 days per week, 52 weeks per year, can produce pies at the rate of 64 pies per day. The bakery sets up the pie production operation and produces until a predetermined number (Q) of pies has
The Pedal Pusher Bicycle Shop operates 7 days per week, closing only on Christmas Day. The shop pays $300 for a particular bicycle purchased from the manufacturer. The annual holding cost per bicycle is estimated to be 25% of the dollar value of inventory. The shop sells an average of 25 bikes per
The Petroco Company uses a highly toxic chemical in one of its manufacturing processes. It must have the product delivered by special cargo trucks designed for safe shipment of chemicals. As such, ordering (and delivery) costs are relatively high, at $2,600 per order. The chemical product is
The Big Buy Supermarket stocks Munchies Cereal. Demand for Munchies is 4,000 boxes per year (365 days). It costs the store $60 per order of Munchies, and it costs $0.80 per box per year to keep the cereal in stock. Once an order for Munchies is placed, it takes 4 days to receive the order from a
The Wood Valley Dairy makes cheese to supply to stores in its area. The dairy can make 250 pounds of cheese per day (365 days per year), and the demand at area stores is 180 pounds per day. Each time the dairy makes cheese, it costs $125 to set up the production process. The annual cost of carrying
The Rainwater Brewery produces Rainwater Light Beer, which it stores in barrels in its warehouse and supplies to its distributors on demand. The demand for Rainwater is 1,500 barrels of beer per day (365 days per year). The brewery can produce 2,000 barrels of Rainwater per day. It costs $6,500 to
The purchasing manager for the Atlantic Steel Company must determine a policy for ordering coal to operate 12 converters. Each converter requires exactly 5 tons of coal per day to operate, and the firm operates 360 days per year. The purchasing manager has determined that the ordering cost is $80

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