Activity Preceding Optimistic (O) Probable (M) Pessimistic (P) Expected (E) Variance

A - 7 9 14 9.5 1.361111

B A 2 2 8 3 1

C A 8 12 16 12 1.777778

D - 3 5 10 5.5 1.361111

E C 4 6 8 6 0.444444

F B 6 8 10 8 0.444444

G F 2 3 4 3 0.111111

H D,E 2 2 8 3 1

I G 6 8 16 9 2.777778

J H 4 14 14 12.33333 2.777778

K I,J 2 5 5 4.5 0.25

a. Expected time for each activity = (O+4M+P)/6

Paths and expecteddurations:

A-B-F-G-I-K = 9.5+3+3+9+4.5 = 29

A-C-E-H-J-K = 9.5+12+6+3+12.3+4.5 = 47.3

D-H-J-K = 5.5+3+12.3+4.5 = 25.3

b. Critical path is A-C-E-H-J-K as the duration is highest.

c. Variance of each activity = ((P-O)/6)^2

Project variance = Sum of variances of activities on critical path i.e (A,C,E,H,J,K) = 1.36+1.78+0.44+1+2.78+0.25 = 7.61

d. Project Standard deviation = \sqrt{} Project Variance = \sqrt{} 7.61 = 2.76

what is the standard deviation of this exercise?

also what is the probability of completion of the project after week 40