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Production And Operations Management Systems 1st Edition Sushil Gupta; Martin Starr - Solutions
What is extrapolation and how is it used?
What is correlation?
What is an historical forecast? When is it used?
Why are long life-cycle stages considered desirable? Does this apply to startup and growth as well as the mature stage of new products?
When are multiple forecasts desirable?
1: The larger the number of periods in the simple MA forecasting method, the greater the method’s responsiveness to changes in demand. (True or False)?
2: The coefficient of correlation can never be negative. (True or False)?
3: Most forecasting techniques assume that there is some underlying stability in the system. (True or False)?
4: The percent of variation in the dependent variable that is explained by the regression equation is measured by which one of the following? (a) MAD, (b) slope, (c) coefficient of determination, (d) correlation coefficient, or (e) intercept.
5: Time-series data may exhibit which of the following behaviors? (a) Trend, (b) random variations, (c) seasonality, (d) all of these.
6: Weekly sales of bread at a local Whole Foods Market are given in the table below. Forecast sales for week 7 using a 3-week MA.Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Sales 402 385 420 382 410 432 385 411
7: Weekly sales of ten-grain bread at the local Whole Foods Market are given in the table below. Forecast demand for week 6 using a 4-week MA.Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Sales 415 389 420 382 410 432 380 410
8: What is the forecast for May based on a WMA applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 0.7, 0.2, 0.1 (largest weight is for most recent data)?Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. April 37 36 40 42 47 43
9: What is the forecast for April based on a WMA applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 0.6, 0.3, 0.1 (largest weight is for most recent data)?Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. April 37 40 36 47 42 43
10: What is the forecast for May based on a WMA applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 0.5, 0.3, 0.2 (largest weight is for most recent data)?Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June 137 140 136 145 138 144
11: Given an actual demand of 110, a previous forecast value of 120, and an α = 0.3, the ES forecast for the next period would be ______.
12: Given an actual demand of 103, a previous forecast value of 99, and an α = 0.4, the ES forecast for the next period would be _______.
13: For a given product demand, the time-series trend equation is 25 + 3.2X.What is the demand forecast for period 10?
14: The demands for an item for the 12 months of year 2014 are given below.Period (T) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.Demand 151 152 132 161 182 192 174 159 183 169 175 181 The trend projection equation is Y = 148.97 + 2.864T where T is
15: A forecasting method has produced the following data over the past 5 months.What is the MAD?Actual Forecast Error |Error|10 11 − 1 1 8 10 − 2 2 10 8 2 2 6 6 0 0 9 8 1 1
16: For the data given below, is the forecasting system overestimating or underestimating the demand? (a) Overestimating, (b) Underestimating.Actual Forecast Error |Error|10 11 − 1 1 8 10 − 2 2 10 8 2 2 6 6 0 0 9 8 1 1
17: A forecasting method has produced the following data over the past 6 months.What is the MAD at the end of 6 months?Month Actual Forecast Error |Error|1 10 9 1 1 2 8 10 − 2 2 3 10 8 2 2 4 6 6 0 0 5 9 8 1 1 6 11 12
18: If the coefficient of correlation is −0.8, what is the percent of variation in the dependent variable that is explained by the regression equation?
19: If you were selecting a forecasting model based on MAD, which of the following MAD values reflects the most accurate model?(A) 0.2, (B) 0.8, (C) 2.0, (D) 4.5, (E) 100.Past actual demand (in units) for a company is given below. Answer the next three questions.Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Actual
20: Compute a weighted 3-month MA for month 7 by using the following weights: 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2. The weight is highest for the latest month.
21: The demand forecast for month 7 by using a simple 3-month MA will be ___.
22: Find the forecast for month 9 by using ES with α = 0.3.
23: Find the value of MAD at the end of month 8 by using the demand and forecast data in the table given below.Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Actual demand 700 645 660 648 655 760 682 670 756 Forecast 720 675 635 587 702 718 740 753
24: Which of the following statements is true on the basis of the data given in the above table?a. The demand is being overestimated.b. The demand is being underestimated.
25: In regression analysis, you determine the intercept value of the model to be 1000 and the slope value to be 50.What is the resulting forecast value using this model if the value of the independent variable X is 12.
26: The following trend projection, based on past 36 months (years 2014, 2015, and 2016) data is used to predict monthly demand:Y = 250 + 1.5t, where t = 1 is the first month of year 2014 (January 2014)What is the seasonally adjusted forecast for March 2017? It is given that the seasonal (monthly)
27: The following trend projection, based on past 12 quarters (years 2014, 2015, and 2016) data is used to predict quarterly demand:Y = 250 − 2.5t, where t = 1 for the first quarter of 2014.Seasonal (quarterly) indices are Quarter 1 = 1.5; Quarter 2 = 0.8; Quarter 3 = 1.1; and Quarter 4 =
28: The demand data for an item for 3 years is given in the table below. Find the forecast for the Winter quarter of the fourth year using the seasonal forecasting model. Total demand in the fourth year is expected to be 2212 units.Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Fall 110 135 180 Winter 240 355 500
The Highway Department is considering using a 6-month MA to forecast crew hours needed to repair roads month by month for the coming year. To test whether this method is accurate, use last year’s data (shown in the following table) to predict the last 6 months’ crew hours to compare with the
Referring to Q29, prepare an analysis of the errors in using the 6-month MA as a predictor.
Referring to Q29 and Q30, use a 3-period MA to forecast the last 6 months and compare directly to the 6-month forecast developed there. Here, the first forecast is the average of April, May, and June to compare with the actual value of 200 for July and so on through December.
Referring to Q29, Q30, and Q31, use a 6-period WMA to forecast the last 6 months and compare directly to the un-weighted forecasts for 6-month and 3-month periods. Use the weights 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 with the 0.3 weighting the most recent datum point.
The following table presents data concerning the sales of minivans and minivan tires for 10 years. It is believed that the demand for minivan replacement tires is highly correlated with the sales figures of minivans for the previous years. Based on these data which is a better predictor of minivan
Why is AP used? What does it do?
What is meant by aggregation of units?
Explain standard units of work.
Explain the use of backordering for goods.
Give one or more examples of how backordering can be used for services.
Describe the system’s nature of AP from the point of view of classes of resources and product-mix families.
Explain why AP follows strategic planning.
Explain the statement that AP starts a chain reaction in the supply chain of suppliers–producer–customers.
Discuss the importance of forecasting for AP.
Explain the planning horizon and the updating interval.
A job shop manager said, “For the average job shop product, the best planning interval would range from 3 to 6 months.” Might this statement provide a reasonable rule of thumb?
Why do forecasts for aggregated jobs have an advantage over forecasts for individual (disaggregated) jobs?
How can the effects of seasonal demands be taken into account for AP? Explain.
In some job shop industries, a smooth production rate is the preferred choice.Explain what this means and when it can be true.
In some job shop industries, the workforce size is altered to chase the expected demands. Explain what this means.
Compare smooth or level aggregate production policies with chasing policies.Explain when each is likely to be preferred.
At one time, the canning industry was totally dependent on harvest dates.As a result, major workforce alterations occurred sporadically. After careful study, steps were taken to smooth the demand patterns. What measures might have helped?
What is a combination aggregate policy?
Explain how the trade-off model for workforce adjustment costs and inventory costs yields a better AP policy.
Seven jobs will be in the shop next week. The demand in units for each job and the production rates of the standard operator in pieces per standard operator hour for each type of job are given as follows:Job A B C D E F G Demand 600 1000 500 50 2000 20 800 Production rate 60 20 25 10 40 2 40 What
Six service calls are on hand for next week. The number of steps required for each has been determined and is listed below. The output rate is measured in steps per standard operator hour for each type of job.Job A B C D E F Number of steps 500 400 200 150 2000 48 Output rate 100 20 25 75 400 12
The estimated annual demands for five types of soup made by The Big Soup Company are given below. There are three plants located in the United States.The most productive plant has been chosen as the standard plant. Its output is listed in standard plant output per day.Soup A B C D E Demand 900 630
Using the information in Problem 3, assume that the two other plants have indices of 0.8 and 0.7. Is it likely that the three plants can handle the annual demand?
Consider the data for the 6-month period given in the table below and answer the following questions.a. What is the total demand in 6 months?b. What is the total production in 6 months?c. What kind of AP policy is this?d. Find the production rate, that is, the number of units that one worker can
Using the information in Problem 5, what would be the effect of adding another person to the workforce? Specifically, this means increasing the number of workers from 38 to 39.Is this a sensible move?
Use the data given in table in Problem 5.In addition, the following information is available. The current number of workers is 37.(Note: This must be changed to the number of workers required in period 1.) Backorders (shortages)cost $100, and carrying inventory costs $25 per unit per time
Using the information in Problem 7, what would be the effect of adding another person to the workforce? Specifically, this means increasing the number of workers from 38 to 39.Compare various costs calculated in Problems 7 and 8 and present your recommendations concerning adding one person to the
The aggregate demand for a product line for the next 6 months is given below.The firm has regular capacity of 120 units per month, overtime capacity for 40 more units per month, and subcontracting can supply up to 100 units per month.Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 Demand 220 160 200 210 200 190 Use the Chase
Use the data given in Problem 9.If the regular capacity is increased to 210 from the current level of 120 units per month and you meet your demand by only regular time production, then answer the following two questions.a. What is the cost of changing production level?b. What is the cost of regular
Consider the demand data given in Problem 9.A Level plan that produces 180 units per period in the regular time is being used. The inventory carrying cost per unit per period is $25, and the shortage cost per unit per period is$30.00. The beginning inventory is 100 units. There is no overtime
A company has the following demand forecast for the next 6 months. Assume that an employee contributes eight regular working hours per day. Overtime capacity is limited to a maximum of 20% of regular time capacity. The time to produce one unit is 4 h.Month Forecast Working Days January 540 21
The aggregate demand for a product line for the next 6 months is given below. The firm has regular capacity of 150 units per month, overtime capacity for 40 more units per month, and subcontracting can supply up to 100 units per month. The chase policy is being used. Find the numbers of units
In the text there is an example of a system operating at 75% of capacity most of the time. In that section, it is said, “this may be a good thing.” Explain why and when it might be beneficial for the system to be run at less than 100% of capacity? Give a numerical illustration.
Use the service example of blood-testing to calculate the effect of using the chasing strategy. Use a numerical example.
It has been stated that, as a rule of thumb, “the best inventory is no inventory.”Discuss this heuristic.
How does this rule of thumb apply to gasoline? Is gasoline an OPP commodity?
For a toothpaste manufacturer, how is the decision made concerning how many caps should be ordered? Could it be a different number than the number of tubes that are ordered at one time?
How often should an order size be updated?
What method should be used to determine the order quantity for a raw material that is used continuously within a flow shop?
What method should be used to determine the order quantity for a raw material that is used continuously within an intermittent flow shop?
Who are the people that are responsible for placing orders?
Benetton is a well-known manufacturer and retailer of clothing all over the world. The Benetton factories are tied in with retailers so that demand information is relatively immediate and complete concerning what is selling and what is not. How does this information affect lot-size planning?
Salespeople use hand-held telecommunication devices to communicate inventory status to the warehouse in a major toy company. Why is this system needed and what does it affect?
What is carrying cost composed of and what is the range of values that will be found for this cost under varying conditions?
What is the logic for a buyer to accept a discount offer?
What is the logic for a seller to offer a discount?
Why is there an ordering cost and of what is it composed?
What is the difference between an ordering cost and a setup cost?
When is it likely that an ordering cost will be larger than a setup cost?
When is it likely that a setup cost will be larger than an ordering cost?
Relate the number of orders placed and the order quantity.
Why are OPPs called by that name?
Why are TVC equations written for OPP models instead of total cost equations?
When discounts are being considered, total cost equations must be used instead of TVC equations. Why is this so?
Differentiate between EOQ and EPQ models.
When is lead-time variability a problem and what can be done about it?
How can lead-time variability be modeled?
What is a two-bin system? When is it applicable?
Describe a perpetual inventory system.
Under what circumstances is a perpetual inventory system preferred?
Describe a periodic inventory system.
When is a periodic inventory system preferred?
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