PERT Problem

Analyze the same problem with probabilistic activity times given.

Activity	Immediate Predecessors	Most Optimistic Time	Most Likely Time	Most Pessimistic Time	Expected Time (ET)	Variance
A		2	3	6	3.333	.444
B	A	3	4	5	4.000	.111
C	B	1	2	4	2.167	.250
D	B	3	5	6	4.833	.250
E	C	3	4	5	4.000	.111
F	D	3	3	4	3.167	.028
G	E,F	1	2	3	2.000	.111

Step 3. Find the probability of a scheduled completion date of less than 17 days. a. Sketch out the project mean and project standard deviation assuming a normal distribution with mean and standard deviation found above. Remember the standard deviation is the square root of the variance! _____________________________________________________________

b. Now, find the z value for a scheduled completion date of day 17 on the critical path using the formula: Using the z value, a probability value can be found. __________