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Operations Management Sustainability And Supply Chain Management Global Edition 12th Edition Jay Heizer, Barry Render, Chuck Munson - Solutions

Accountants at the Tucson firm, Larry Youdelman, CPAs, believed that several traveling executives were submitting unusually high travel vouchers when they returned from business trips. First, they took a sample of 200 vouchers submitted from the past year. Then they developed the following
Rhonda Clark, a Slippery Rock, Pennsylvania, real estate developer, has devised a regression model to help determine residential housing prices in northwestern Pennsylvania. The model was developed using recent sales in a particular neighborhood. The price ( Y ) of the house is based on the size
Kalamia Company tries to forecast the value of its business based on the money that has spent on advertisement.The company has been tracking the relationship between sales and money spent on advertising, where the results are as follows(all numbers expressed in thousands Euro)Use linear regression
The following data relate the sales figures of the bar in Mark Kaltenbach’s small bed-and-breakfast inn in Portand, to the number of guests registered that week:a) Perform a linear regression that relates bar sales to guests (not to time).b) If the forecast is for 20 guests next week, what are
Café Michigan’s manager, Gary Stark, suspects that demand for mocha latte coffees depends on the price being charged. Based on historical observations, Gary has gathered the following data, which show the numbers of these coffees sold over six different price values:
Lori Cook has developed the following forecasting model:yn = 36 + 4.3x where yn = demand for Kool Air conditioners and x 5 the outside temperature (°F)a) Forecast demand for the Kool Air when the temperature is 70°F.b) What is demand when the temperature is 80°F?c) What is demand when the
Mark Gershon, owner of a musical instrument distributorship, thinks that demand for guitars may be related to the number of television appearances by the popular group Maroon 5 during the previous month. Mark has collected the data shown in the following table:a) Graph these data to see whether a
Boulanger Savings and Loan is proud of its long tradition in Winter Park, Florida. Begun by Michelle Boulanger 22 years after World War II, the S&L has bucked the trend of financial and liquidity problems that has repeatedly plagued the industry. Deposits have increased slowly but surely over
Storrs Cycles has just started selling the new Cyclone mountain bike, with monthly sales as shown in the table. First, co-owner Bob Day wants to forecast by exponential smoothing by initially setting February’s forecast equal to January’s sales with a = .1. Co-owner Sherry Snyder wants to use a
Using the 911 call data in Problem 4.31, forecast calls for weeks 2 through 25 with a trend-adjusted exponential smoothing model. Assume an initial forecast for 50 calls for week 1 and an initial trend of zero. Use smoothing constants of a = .3 and b = .2. Is this model better than that of Problem
Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North Carolina, for the past 24 weeks are shown in the following table:a) Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast of calls for each week. Assume an initial forecast of 50 calls in the first week, and use a = .2. What is the forecast for week 25?b)
Dr. Lillian Fok, a New Orleans psychologist, specializes in treating patients who are agoraphobic (i.e., afraid to leave their homes). The following table indicates how many patients Dr. Fok has seen each year for the past 10 years. It also indicates what the robbery rate was in New Orleans during
The number of disk drives (in millions) made at a plant in Taiwan during the past 5 years follows:a) Forecast the number of disk drives to be made next year, using linear regression.b) Compute the mean squared error (MSE) when using linear regression.c) Compute the mean absolute percent error
North Dakota Electric Company estimates its demand trend line (in millions of kilowatt hours) to be:where Q refers to the sequential quarter number and Q 5 1 for winter of Year 1.In addition, the multiplicative seasonal factors are as follows:Forecast energy use for the four quarters of year 26
Attendance at Orlando’s newest Disneylike attraction, Lego World, has been as follows:Compute seasonal indices using all of the data.
A logistics company has been in business for four years and wants to develop monthly indices. Inventory monthly quantities for these years are shown below.a) Develop monthly indicesb) Estimate next year forecast for the months: April, July and December, assuming that the annual inventory quantity
The University athletic department works on its budget for the next year basketball attendance. Table below shows the accumulated number of seasonal basketball attendance for the two last years. The University, due to the good performance of the basketball team last year, expects the annual ticket
The following gives the number of accidents that occurred on Florida State Highway 101 during the past 4 months:Forecast the number of accidents that will occur in May, using least-squares regression to derive a trend equation
A warehouse manager wants through forecasting to estimate the inventory moving in and out of his warehouse each week. An analyst suggests using a 3-, 5- , or 7 week moving average. However, before deciding, he wants to compare the accuracy of each for the most recent 10-week period.a) Calculate the
Refer to Problem 4.21. Complete the trend-adjusted exponential-smoothing forecast computations for periods 7, 8, and 9.Confirm that your numbers for F t, T t, and FIT t match those in Table 4.2(p. 123 )
Refer to the trend-adjusted exponential smoothing illustration in Example 7 on pages 122 – 123 . Using a = .2 and b = .4, we forecast sales for 9 months, showing the detailed calculations for months 2 and 3.In Solved Problem 4.2, we continued the process for month 4
Resolve Problem 4.19 with a = .1 and b = .8. Using MSE, determine which smoothing constants provide a better forecast
Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and Yunes for the period February to July was as follows:Use trend-adjusted exponential smoothing to forecast the firm’s August income. Assume that the initial forecast average for February is $65,000 and the initial trend adjustment is 0.The smoothing
Consider the following actual ( A t) and forecast ( F t)demand levels for a commercial multiline telephone at Office Max:The first forecast, F1 , was derived by observing A1 and setting F1 equal to A1 . Subsequent forecast averages were derived by exponential smoothing. Using the exponential
Refer to Solved Problem 4.1 on page 144.Using smoothing constants of .6 and .9, develop forecasts for the sales of VW Beetles. What effect did the smoothing constant have on the forecast? Use MAD to determine which of the three smoothing constants (.3, .6, or .9) gives the most accurate forecast.
Refer to Solved Problem 4.1 on page 144.a) Using the trend projection (regression) method, develop a forecast for the sales of Volkswagen Beetles in Nevada through year 6.b) What is the MAD? PXc) What is the MSE?
Refer to Solved Problem 4.1 on page 144 .a) Use a 3-year moving average to forecast the sales of Volkswagen Beetles in Nevada through year 6.b) What is the MAD? PXc) What is the MSE?
A local retailer is thinking to use exponential smoothing to forecast one of his well selling products. His problem is that he is not sure if he has to use a low or high value ofa. For this reason, he uses the historical data available and tries with values for a = 0.1 and a = 0.2 to find which a
As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years:The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 41 surgeries.a) Use exponential smoothing, first with a
Consider the following actual and forecast demand levels for Big Mac hamburgers at a local McDonald’s restaurant:The forecast for Monday was derived by observing Monday’s demand level and setting Monday’s forecast level equal to this demand level. Subsequent forecasts were derived by using
Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.3 to forecast the registrations at the seminar given in Problem 4.10. To begin the procedure, assume that the forecast for year 1 was 5,000 people signing up.a) What is the MAD? PXb) What is the MSE?
Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table:a) Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast registrations from year 4 to year 12.b) Estimate demand again for years 4 to 12 with a 3-year weighted moving average in which
Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop computers. The prices for the chip during the past 12 months were as follows:a) Use a 2-month moving average on all the data and plot the averages and the prices.b) Use a 3-month moving average and add the 3-month plot to the graph created in part
Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last week were as follows: 93, 94, 93, 95, 96, 88, 90 (yesterday).a) Forecast the high temperature today, using a 3-day moving average.b) Forecast the high temperature today, using a 2-day moving average.c) Calculate the mean absolute deviation based on
The actual demand for the patients at Omaha Emergency Medical Clinic for the first 6 weeks of this year follows:Clinic administrator Marc Schniederjans wants you to forecast patient demand at the clinic for week 7 by using this data. You decide to use a weighted moving average method to find this
The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as follows:a) Plot the monthly sales data.b) Forecast January sales using each of the following:i) Naive method.ii) A 3-month moving average.iii) A 6-month weighted average using .1, .1, .1, .2, .2, and .3, with the heaviest weights applied to the
The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows:a) Forecast the mileage for next year (6th year) using a 2-year moving average.b) Find the
A check-processing center uses exponential smoothing to forecast the number of incoming checks each month. The number of checks received in June was 40 million, while the forecast was 42 million. A smoothing constant of .2 is used.a) What is the forecast for July?b) If the center received 45
Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing with a = .4 and a forecast for year 1 of 6.Plot your new forecast on a graph with the actual data and the naive forecast. Based on a visual inspection, which forecast is better?
a) Plot the above data on a graph. Do you observe any trend, cycles, or random variations?b) Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average. Plot your forecast on the same graph as the original data. YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 DEMAND 7 9 5 9 13 8 00 12 13 9
The following gives the number of pints of type B blood used at Woodlawn Hospital in the past 6 weeks:a) Forecast the demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average.b) Use a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of .1, .3, and .6, using .6 for the most recent week. Forecast
Li & Fung is a global trading company with clients being major retailers such as Wal-Mart, Target and Disney World serving a network of 12,000 suppliers. Li & Fung is engaged in collaborative planning, relying on collaborative technology to forecast forthcoming trends. Being an intermediary between
What happens to the ability to forecast for periods farther into the future?.
Summarize in the form of a table (a) the characteristics,(b) the strengths, and (c) the weakness for the following qualitative methods: (i) Jury of executive opinion, (ii) Delphi method, and (iii) Market survey.
Give examples of industries that are affected by seasonality. Why would these businesses want to filter out seasonality?
If the benefits of implementing CPFR are so evident, why are companies reticent to commit to this concept?
Explain, in your own words, the meaning of the correlation coefficient. Discuss the meaning of a negative value of the correlation coefficient.
What is the purpose of a tracking signal?
How could an exponential smoothing model be made more responsive?
Which forecasting technique can place the most emphasis on recent values? How does it do this?
Explain the value of seasonal indices in forecasting. How are seasonal patterns different from cyclical patterns?
What effect does the value of the smoothing constant have on the weight given to the recent values?
What type of forecasting method would you recommend to a start-up retailer in terms of quantities, number of products, etc.? Will you use the same method after say five years of operation? Explain.
What is the primary difference between a time-series model and an associative model?
Research and briefly describe the Delphi technique. How would it be used by an employer you have worked for?
What three methods are used to determine the accuracy of any given forecasting method? How would you determine whether time-series regression or exponential smoothing is better in a specific application?
What is the basic difference between a weighted moving average and exponential smoothing?
Explain why such forecasting devices as moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential smoothing are not well suited for data series that have trends.
A skeptical manager asks what medium-range forecasts can be used for. Give the manager three possible uses/purposes.
Briefly describe the steps that are used to develop a forecasting system.
Suppose you need to forecast the amount of relief aid needed following an earthquake. What type of forecast do you think is the most appropriate: qualitative or quantitative, and why?Is CPFR applicable in this case?
Identify and briefly describe the two general forecasting approaches.
What is a qualitative forecasting model, and when is its use appropriate?
The crash cost per period:a) is the difference in costs divided by the difference in times(crash and normal).b) is considered to be linear in the range between normal and crash.c) needs to be determined so that the smallest cost values on the critical path can be considered for time reduction
When an activity has to be crashed, the following have to be considered:a) the inherent risks involved in crashing particular activities need to be considered, as some activities are riskier to crash than othersb) the timing of activities needs to be consideredc) crashing frequently results in
The critical path of a network is the:a) shortest-time path through the network.b) path with the fewest activities.c) path with the most activities.d) longest-time path through the network
Slack time equals:a) ES + t .b) LS − ES.c) zero.d) EF − ES.
There are the following advantages to AON method:a) No dummy activities are usedb) Nodes designate activitiesc) Events are not usedd) Easy to draw if dependencies are not intensee) All of the above
A well designed WBS helps the project manager in that:a) It defines all the elements of the project in a hierarchical outline (map)b) It defines the relationship of the projectto its subdeliverables, and in turn, their relationships to work packagesc) It serves as a framework for tracking cost and
Why is a work breakdown structure useful in a project such as this? Take the 26 activities and break them into what you think should be level-2, level-3, and level-4 tasks.
Identify five major challenges a project manager faces in events such as this one.
Which activities have a slack time of 8 weeks or more?
Identify the critical path and its activities for Rockfest. How long does the project take?
What percent of the whole project duration was spent in planning that occurred prior to the proposal and reviews? Prior to the actual building construction? Why?
Why is the construction of this 11-story building any more complex than construction of an equivalent office building?
What is the critical path, and how long is the project expected to take?
Develop the network for planning and construction of the new hospital at Arnold Palmer.
If it is necessary to crash to 250 or 240 days, how would Hill do so, and at what costs? As noted in the case, assume that optimistic time estimates can be used as crash times.
What is the probability of finishing in 270 days?
Develop a network drawing for Hill Construction and determine the critical path. How long is the project expected to take?
Kimpel Products makes pizza ovens for commercial use. James Kimpel, CEO, is contemplating producing smaller ovens for use in high school and college kitchens. The activities necessary to build an experimental model and related data are given in the following table:a) What is the project completion
Development of Version 2.0 of a particular accounting software product is being considered by Jose Noguera’s technology firm in Baton Rouge. The activities necessary for the completion of this project are listed in the following table:a) What is the project completion date?b) What is the total
Three activities are candidates for crashing on a project network for a large computer installation (all are, of course, critical). Activity details are in the following table:a) What action would you take to reduce the critical path by 1 day?b) Assuming no other paths become critical, what action
What is the minimum cost of crashing the following project that Roger Solano manages at Slippery Rock University by 4 days? NORMAL CRASH TIME TIME NORMAL CRASH IMMEDIATE ACTIVITY (DAYS) (DAYS) COST COST PREDECESSOR(S) A 6 5 $900 $1,000 B 8 6 300 400 - CD 4 3 5 500 600 3 900 1,200 A E 8 5 1,000
Given the project diagram that follows, see graph (a), and the details of the accompanying table reduce the completion time of the project by 4 weeks in the most economical way:
Using PERT, Adam Munson was able to determine that the expected project completion time for the construction of a pleasure yacht is 21 months, and the project variance is 4.a) What is the probability that the project will be completed in 17 months?b) What is the probability that the project will be
Four Squares Productions, a firm hired to coordinate the release of the movie Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (starring Johnny Depp), identified 16 activities to be completed before the release of the film.a) How many weeks in advance of the film release should Four Squares have started
Rich Cole Control Devices, Inc., produces custombuilt relay devices for auto makers. The most recent project undertaken by Cole requires 14 different activities. Cole’s managers would like to determine the total project completion time (in days)and those activities that lie along the critical
The estimated times and immediate predecessors for the activities in a project at George Kyparis’s retinal scanning company are given in the following table. Assume that the activity times are independent ?a) Calculate the expected time and variance for each activity.b) What is the expected
Kelle Carpet and Trim installs carpet in commercial offices. Peter Kelle has been very concerned with the amount of time it took to complete several recent jobs. Some of his workers are very unreliable. A list of activities and their optimistic completion time, the most likely completion time, and
A renovation of the gift shop at Orlando Amway Center has six activities (in hours). For the following estimates of a , m , and b , calculate the expected time and the standard deviation for each activity:
Ross Hopkins, president of Hopkins Hospitality, has developed the tasks, durations, and predecessor relationships in the following table for building new motels. Draw the AON network and answer the questions that follow.a) What is the expected (estimated) time for activity C?b) What is the variance
The Rover 6 is a new custom-designed sports car. An analysis of the task of building the Rover 6 reveals the following list of relevant activities, their immediate predecessors, and their duration:a) Draw a network diagram for the project.b) Mark the critical path and state its length.c) If the
Dave Fletcher (see Problem 3.12) was able to determine the activity times for constructing his laser scanning machine. Fletcher would like to determine ES, EF, LS, LF, and slack for each activity. The total project completion time and the critical path should also be determined. Here are the
The activities needed to build a prototype laser scanning machine at Dave Fletcher Corp. are listed in the following table. Construct an AON network for these activities. IMMEDIATE IMMEDIATE ACTIVITY PREDECESSOR(S) ACTIVITY PREDECESSOR(S) A E B B F B C A G C, E D A H D, F
Draw the AON project network using the following information:a) Draw an AON diagram of the project, including activity durations.b) Define the critical path, listing all critical activities in chronological order.c) What is the project duration (in weeks)?d) What is the slack (in weeks) associated
The activities described by the following table are given for the Howard Corporation in Kansas:a) Draw the appropriate AON PERT diagram for J.C. Howard’s management team.b) Find the critical path.c) What is the project completion time?
Task time estimates for the modification of an assembly line at Jim Goodale’s Carbondale, Illinois, factory are as follows:a) Draw the project network using AON.b) Identify the critical path.c) What is the expected project length?d) Draw a Gantt chart for the project
Roger Ginde is developing a program in supply chain management certification for managers. Ginde has listed a number of activities that must be completed before a training program of this nature could be conducted. The activities, immediate predecessors, and times appear in the accompanying
Draw the AON project network using the following information:How long would it take to complete this project? Which activities are included on the critical path? ACTIVITY IMMEDIATE PREDECESSOR (S) DURATION (WEEKS) A 4 B 35 UD LLI 5 A 9 E B 3 F C, E 1 G D 2 H F 3 I G, H 15 J G 1

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