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business
hotel operations management
Operations Management 14th Edition William J Stevenson - Solutions
What are two ways that the company has increased productivity?Why did increasing the length of the ovens result in a faster output rate? LO.1
Do you think that the company is making the right decision by not automating the packing of cookies? Explain your reasoning.What obligation does a company have to its employees in a situation such as this? What obligation does it have to the community? Is the size of the town a factor? Would it
What factors cause the company to carry minimal amounts of certain inventories? What benefits result from this policy? LO.1
As a consumer, what things do you consider in judging the quality of cookies you buy in a supermarket? LO.1
What advantages and what limitations stem from the company’s not using preservatives in cookies? LO.1
Briefly describe the company’s strategy. LO.1
What competitive advantage does Hazel have over a professional lawn care service? LO.1
Hazel would like to increase her profits, but she doesn’t believe it would be wise to raise her prices considering the current state of the local economy. Instead, she has given some thought to increasing productivity.a. Explain how increased productivity could be an alternative to increased
Hazel is thinking about the purchase of new equipment. One would be power sidewalk edgers. She believes edgers will lead to an increase in productivity. Another would be a chain saw, which would be used for tree pruning. What trade-offs should she consider in her analysis? LO.1
Hazel has been fairly successful in her neighborhood, and now wants to expand to other neighborhoods, including some that are five miles away. What would be the advantages and disadvantages of doing this? LO.1
Hazel does not have a mission statement or a set of objectives.Take one of the following positions and defend it:a. Hazel doesn’t need a formal mission statement and objectives.Many small businesses don’t have them.b. She definitely needs a mission statement and a set of objectives.They would
Which crew size had the highest productivity per worker?Which crew size had the lowest productivity per worker? What are some possible explanations for these results? LO.1
After a recent storm, a customer called in a panic, saying she had planned a garden party for the upcoming weekend and her garden was in a shambles. The owner decided to send a crew of four workers, even though a two-worker crew would have a higher productivity. Explain the rationale for this
What is a possible qualitative issue that may very well influence productivity levels that the productivity ratios fail to take into account? LO.1
What operations strategies are important at Girlfriend Collective? LO.1
In what ways do these strategies put Girlfriend Collective at a competitive advantage or disadvantage? LO.1
What short- and long-term impacts do Girlfriend Collective’s business practices have on the garment industry? On recyclers?On communities? On profits? LO.1
How might sustainability measures for people and production processes impact productivity? How can companies balance a desire for ethics with productivity concerns? LO.1
Why is it important for the USPS to have a high volume of mail to process? LO.1
What caused productivity to increase? LO.1
What impact did competitive pressures have on the USPS? LO.1
What measures did the USPS adopt to increase competitiveness? LO.1
What results were achieved by the USPS’s changes? LO.1
What effect does the increased use of e-mail have on postal productivity? LO.1
How does the use of standard shipping containers and flatrate mailers help competitiveness? LO.1
List features common to all forecasts. LO.1
Explain why forecasts are generally wrong. LO.1
List the elements of a good forecast. LO.1
Outline the steps in the forecasting process. LO.1
Describe four qualitative forecasting techniques. LO.1
Use a naive method to make a forecast. LO.1
Prepare a moving average forecast. LO.1
Prepare a weighted-average forecast. LO.1
Prepare an exponential smoothing forecast. LO.1
Prepare a linear trend forecast. LO.1
Prepare a trend-adjusted exponential smoothing forecast. LO.1
Compute and use seasonal relatives. LO.1
Compute and use regression and correlation coefficients. LO.1
Summarize forecast errors and use summaries to make decisions. LO.1
Construct control charts and use them to monitor forecast errors. LO.1
Describe the key factors and trade-offs to consider when choosing a forecasting technique. LO.1
Do you think there is a correlation between blooming date and temperature? LO.1
Although each graph shows a definite linear trend, based on the data in the graphs, the trend lines probably shouldn’t be used to predict when the blooms will occur in any given year. Explain the reason for not doing that. LO.1
Park employees make their prediction each year a few months ahead of when they think the plants will bloom, and when the festival should occur. However, a bout of unusually warm or cold weather can alter the actual blooming times. What businesses are likely to be impacted by the festival, and what
What is DF and why is it important? LO.1
Why might a company executive make bold predictions about future demand to Wall Street analysts? LO.1
How might an executive’s comments to Wall Street analysts affect demand forecasts, and what are the consequences of doing so? LO.1
What are the main advantages that quantitative techniques for forecasting have over qualitative techniques?What limitations do quantitative techniques have? LO.1
What are some of the consequences of poor forecasts? Explain. LO.1
List the specific weaknesses of each of the following approaches to developing a forecast.a. Consumer surveysb. Salesforce compositec. Committee of managers or executives LO.1
Forecasts are generally wrong.a. Why are forecasts generally wrong?b. Explain the term “wrong” as it pertains to a good forecast. LO.1
What is the purpose of establishing control limits for forecast errors? LO.1
What factors would you consider in deciding whether to use wide or narrow control limits for forecasts? LO.1
Contrast the use of MAD and MSE in evaluating forecasts. LO.1
What advantages as a forecasting tool does exponential smoothing have over moving averages? LO.1
How does the number of periods in a moving average affect the responsiveness of the forecast? LO.1
What factors enter into the choice of a value for the smoothing constant in exponential smoothing? LO.1
How accurate is your local five-day weather forecast? Support your answer with actual data. LO.1
Explain how using a centered moving average with a length equal to the length of a season eliminates seasonality from a time series. LO.1
Contrast the terms sales and demand. LO.1
Contrast the reactive and proactive approaches to forecasting. Give several examples of types of organizations or situations in which each type is used. LO.1
Explain how flexibility in production systems relates to the forecast horizon and forecast accuracy. LO.1
Which type of forecasting approach, qualitative or quantitative, is better? LO.1
Suppose a software producer is about to release a new version of its popular software. What information do you think it would take into account in forecasting initial sales? LO.1
Choose the type of forecasting technique (survey, Delphi, averaging, seasonal, naive, trend, or associative) that would be most appropriate for predicting the:a. Demand for Mother’s Day greeting cards.b. Popularity of a new television series.c. Demand for vacations on the moon.d. Impact a price
Explain the trade-off between responsiveness and stability in a forecasting system that uses timeseries data. LO.1
Who needs to be involved in preparing forecasts? LO.1
How has technology had an impact on forecasting? LO.1
What capability would an organization have to have to not need forecasts? LO.1
Discuss how you would manage a poor forecast. LO.1
Give three examples of unethical conduct involving forecasting and the ethical principle each violates. LO.1
A commercial bakery has recorded sales (in dozens) for three products, shown as follows:Day Blueberry Muffins Cinnamon Buns Cupcakes 1 30 18 45 2 34 17 26 3 32 19 27 4 34 19 23 5 35 22 22 Day Blueberry Muffins Cinnamon Buns Cupcakes 6 30 23 48 7 34 23 29 8 36 25 20 9 29 24 14 10 31 26 18 11 35 27
National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as follows:Month Sales (000 units)Feb. 19 Mar. 18 Apr. 15 May 20 Jun. 18 Jul. 22 Aug. 20a. Plot the monthly data on a sheet of graph paper.b. Forecast September sales volume using each of the
An electrical contractor’s records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests:Week 1 2 3 4 5 Requests 20 22 18 21 22 Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these methods:a. Naiveb. A four-period moving averagec. Exponential smoothing with α = .30; use 20 for
From the following graph, determine the equation of the linear trend line for time-share sales for Glib Marketing, Inc. LO.1 Sales (units) 600 500 400 300 200 Annual Sales, Glib Sales, Inc. 100 0 0 1 2 3 4 LO 5 6 7 8 00 Year 6 10
Freight car loadings over a 12-year period at a busy port are as follows:Week Number Week Number Week Number 1 220 7 350 13 460 2 245 8 360 14 475 3 280 9 400 15 500 4 275 10 380 16 510 5 300 11 420 17 525 6 310 12 450 18 541a. Determine a linear trend line for expected freight car loadings.b. Use
Air travel on Mountain Airlines for the past 18 weeks was:Week Passengers 1 405 2 410 3 420 4 415 5 412 6 420 7 424 8 433 9 438 Week Passengers 10 440 11 446 12 451 13 455 14 464 15 466 16 474 17 476 18 482a. Explain why an averaging technique would not be appropriate for forecasting.b. Use an
a. Obtain the linear trend equation for the following data on new checking accounts at Fair Savings Bank and use it to predict expected new checking accounts for periods 16 through 19.Period New Accounts Period New Accounts Period New Accounts 1 200 6 232 11 281 2 214 7 248 12 275 3 211 8 250 13
After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trendadjusted exponential smoothing model is appropriate to predict future demand. The initial estimate of trend is based on the net change of 30 for the three periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +10 units.
Compute seasonal relatives for this data using the SA method:Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 1 2 3 7 4 2 6 10 18 14 3 2 6 8 8 4 5 9 15 11 LO.1
A tourist center is open on weekends (Friday, Saturday, and Sunday). The owner-manager hopes to improve scheduling of part-time employees by determining seasonal relatives for each of these days. Data on recent traffic at the center have been tabulated and are shown in the following table:WEEK 1 2
The manager of a fashionable restaurant open Wednesday through Saturday says that the restaurant does about 35 percent of its business on Friday night, 30 percent on Saturday night, and 20 percent on Thursday night. Which seasonal relatives would describe this situation? LO.1
Obtain estimates of daily relatives for the number of customers at a restaurant for the evening meal, given the following data.a. Use the centered moving average method. (Hint: Use a seven-day moving average.)b. Use the SA method.Day Number Served 1 80 2 75 3 78 4 95 5 130 6 136 7 40 8 82 9 77 10
A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of a certain over-the-counter pain reliever. Daily sales during the last 15 days were as follows:Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Number sold 36 38 42 44 48 49 50 49 52 Day 10 11 12 13 14 15 Number sold 48 52 55 54 56 57a. Which method would you suggest using to predict
New car sales for a dealer in Cook County, Illinois, for the past year are shown in the following table, along with monthly indexes (seasonal relatives), which are supplied to the dealer by the regional distributor.Month Units Sold Index Jan. 640 0.80 Feb. 648 0.80 Mar. 630 0.70 Apr. 761 0.94 May.
The following table shows a tool and die company’s quarterly sales for the current year. What sales would you predict for the first quarter of next year? Quarter relatives are SR1 = 1.10, SR2 = .99, SR3 = .90, and SR4 = 1.01.Quarter 1 2 3 4 Sales 88 99 108 141.4 LO.1
Two different forecasting techniques (F1 and F2) were used to forecast demand for cases of bottled water. Actual demand and the two sets of forecasts are as follows:PREDICTED DEMAND Period Demand F1 F2 1 68 66 66 2 75 68 68 3 70 72 70 4 74 71 72 5 69 72 74 6 72 70 76 7 80 71 78 8 78 74 80a. Compute
Two independent methods of forecasting based on judgment and experience have been prepared each month for the past 10 months. The forecasts and actual sales are as follows:Month Sales Forecast 1 Forecast 2 1 770 771 769 2 789 785 787 3 794 790 792 4 780 784 798 5 768 770 774 6 772 768 770 7 760 761
The manager of a seafood restaurant was asked to establish a pricing policy on lobster dinners.Experimenting with prices produced the following data:Average Number Sold per Day, y Price, x Average Number Sold per Day, y Price, x 200 $6.00 155 $8.25 190 6.50 156 8.50 188 6.75 148 8.75 180 7.00 140
The following data were collected during a study of consumer buying patterns:Observation x y 1 15 74 2 25 80 3 40 84 4 32 81 5 51 96 6 47 95 7 30 83 8 18 78 9 14 70 10 15 72 11 22 85 12 24 88 13 33 90 1. Plot the data.2. Obtain a linear regression line for the data.3. What percentage of the
Lovely Lawns, Inc., intends to use sales of lawn fertilizer to predict lawn mower sales. The store manager estimates a probable six-week lag between fertilizer sales and mower sales. The pertinent data are:Chapter Three Forecasting 133 Period Fertilizer Sales (tons)Number of Mowers Sold (six-week
The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual and predicted values are as follows:Period Demand Predicted 1 129 124 2 194 200 3 156 150 4 91 94 5 85 80 6 132 140 7 126 128 8 126 124 9 95 100 10 149 150 11 98 94 12 85 80
Refer to the data in problem 22.a. Compute a tracking signal for the 10th month for each forecast using the cumulative error for months 1 to 10. Use action limits of ± 4. Is there bias present? Explain.b. Compute 2s control limits for each forecast.134 Chapter Three Forecasting LO.1
The classified department of a monthly magazine has used a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to forecast sales of advertising space. Results over a 20-month period are as follows:Month Error 1 −8 2 −2 3 4 4 7 5 9 6 5 7 0 8 −3 9 −9 10 −4 11 1 12 6 13 8 14 4 15 1 16 −2
A textbook publishing company has compiled data on total annual sales of its business texts for the preceding nine years:Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Sales (000) 40.2 44.5 48.0 52.3 55.8 57.1 62.4 69.0 73.7a. Using an appropriate model, forecast textbook sales for each of the next five years.b. Prepare a
A manager has just received an evaluation from an analyst on two potential forecasting alternatives.The analyst is indifferent between the two alternatives, saying that they should be equally effective.Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Data 37 39 37 39 45 49 47 49 51 54 Alt. 1 36 38 40 42 46 46 46 48 52
A manager uses this equation to predict demand for landscaping services: Ft = 10 + 5t. Over the past eight periods, demand has been as follows:Period, t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Demand 15 21 23 30 32 38 42 47 Is the forecast performing adequately? Explain. LO.1
A manager uses a trend equation plus quarter relatives to predict demand. Quarter relatives are SR1 = .90, SR2 = .95, SR3 = 1.05, and SR4 = 1.10. The trend equation is: Ft = 10 + 5t. Over the past nine quarters, demand has been as follows:Period, t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Demand 14 20 24 31 31 37 43 48
What are some of the potential benefits of a more formalized approach to forecasting? LO.1
Prepare a weekly forecast for the next four weeks for each product. Briefly explain why you chose the methods you used.(Hint: For product 2, a simple approach, possibly some sort of naive/intuitive approach, would be preferable to a technical approach in view of the manager’s disdain of more
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