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nonparametric statistical inference
Statistical Reasoning For Everyday Life 4th Edition Jeffrey Bennett - Solutions
Do a Web search for news articles that discuss results from the Harvard Nurses’ Health Study or other similar studies. Choose one recent result that interests you, and discuss what it means and how it may affect public health or your own health in the future.
All of the participants in the Harvard Nurses’ Health Study were women. Do you think that the results also are of use to men? Why or why not?
Another potential pitfall comes from the fact that the questionnaires often deal with sensitive issues of personal health, and researchers have no way to confirm that the nurses answer honestly. Do you think that dishonesty could be leading researchers to incorrect conclusions?Defend your opinion.
In principle, the Harvard Nurses’ Health Study is subject to participation bias because only 120,000 of the original 370,000 questionnaires were returned. Should the researchers be concerned about this bias? Why or why not?
Explain why the Harvard Nurses’ Health Study is an observational study. Critics sometimes say that the results would be more valid if obtained by experiments rather than observations. Discuss whether it would be possible to gather similar data by carrying out experiments in a practical and
Consider some of the results that are likely to come from the Harvard Nurses’ Health Study over the next 10 to 20 years. What types of results do you think will be most important? Do you think the findings will alter the way you live your life?
Find the latest statistics from the U.S. Department of Transportation concerning the number of crashes and fatalities estimated to be caused by distracted driving each year. Do you think the estimates are likely to be accurate? Why or why not?
The fact that the studies found essentially no difference in danger between hand-held and hands-free devices comes as a surprise to most people. Research studies on brain activity that have provided an explanation for this surprising fact, often called “inattention blindness.”Discuss how and
Public safety advocates and many insurance companies are using the data about distracted driving to argue in favor of laws banning the use of cell phones while driving. Do you support or oppose such laws? Defend your opinion.
Do you ever drive while talking on your cell phone, texting, or programming your GPS? If so, have you ever noticed evidence of your distraction, such as missing a turn or an especially close call for a collision? Have you seen such evidence of distraction when being driven by friends or family or
If a statistical study is carefully conducted in every possible way, then: (a) its results must be correct; (b) we can have confidence in its results, but it is still possible that the results are not correct; (c) we say that the study is perfectly biased.
Imagine a survey of randomly selected people in which it is found that people who use sunscreen were more likely to have been sunburned in the past year. Which explanation for this result seems most likely? (a) sunscreen is useless;(b) the people in this study all used sunscreen that had passed its
Consider an experiment in which you measure the weights of randomly selected cars. The variable of interest in this study is: (a) the size of the sample; (b) the weights of the cars; (c) the average (mean) weight of all cars.
The television show American Idol selects winners from votes cast by anyone who wants to vote. This means the winner: (a) is the person most Americans want to win;(b) may or may not be the person most American want to win, because the voting is subject to participation bias;(c) may or may not be
A study conducted by the oil company Exxon Mobil shows that there was no lasting damage from a large oil spill in Alaska. This conclusion: (a) is definitely invalid, because the study was biased; (b) may be correct, but the potential for bias means you should look very closely at how the conclusion
A survey reveals that 24% of adults believe that the most fun way to flirt is through instant messages. The margin of error is 3 percentage points. The confidence interval for this poll is: (a) from 18% to 30%; (b) from 24% to 27%; (c)from 21% to 27%.
Poll X predicts that Powell will receive 49% of the vote, while Poll Y predicts that she will receive 53% of the vote.Both polls have a margin of error of 3 percentage points.What can you conclude? (a) one of the two polls must have been conducted poorly; (b) the two polls are consistent with one
An experiment is single-blind if: (a) it lacks a treatment group; (b) it lacks a control group; (c) the participants do not know whether they belong to the treatment or control group.
If we see a placebo effect in an experiment to test a new treatment designed to cure warts, it means: (a) the experiment was not properly double-blind; (b) the experimental groups were too small; (c) warts were cured among members of the control group.
The purpose of a placebo is: (a) to prevent participants from knowing whether they belong to the treatment group or the control group; (b) to distinguish between the cases and the controls in a case-control study; (c) to determine whether diseases can be cured without any treatment.
The experiment described in Exercise 4 is: (a) single-blind;(b) double-blind; (c) not blind.
Consider an experiment designed to see whether cash incentives can improve school attendance. The researcher chooses two groups of 100 high school students: She offers one group $10 for every week of perfect attendance. She tells the other group that they are part of an experiment but does not give
When we say that a sample is representative of the population, we mean that: (a) the results found for the sample are similar to those we would find for the entire population; (b)the sample is very large; (c) the sample was chosen in the best possible way.
For the poll described in Exercise 1, which sampling plan would likely yield results that are most biased: (a) Mail the survey to college students in California and use the returned responses; (b) randomly select 20 colleges in California, then randomly select 60 students at each college; (c)
You conduct a poll in which you randomly select 1,200 college students in California and ask if they have taken an online course. The population for this study is: (a) All students who have taken an online course; (b) the 1200 college students that you interview; (c) all college students in
Wording of a Survey Question. In The Superpollsters, David W. Moore describes an experiment in which different subjects were asked if they agree with the following statements:i. Too little money is being spent on welfare.ii. Too little money is being spent on assistance to the poor.Even though it
clinical Trial of Bystolic. In clinical trials of the drug Bystolic used to treat hypertension (high blood pressure), 677 Bystolic users were observed for adverse reactions.It was found that among those treated with Bystolic, 7%experienced headaches.a. Based on the given information, can you
Simple random Sample. An important element of this chapter is the concept of a simple random sample.a. What is a simple random sample?b. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics conducts a survey, it begins by partitioning the United States adult population into 2,007 groups called primary sampling
Tats. A Harris poll surveyed 2,320 adults in the United States, among which 14% said that they have at least one tattoo. The margin of error is 2 percentage points.a. Interpret the margin of error by identifying the range of values likely to contain the percentage of adults with tattoos.b. Identify
unbelievable results. Find a recent news report about a statistical study whose results you don’t believe are meaningful and important. In one page or less, summarize the study and explain why you don’t believe its claims.
Believable results. Find a recent news report about a statistical study whose results you believe are meaningful and important. In one page or less, summarize the study and explain why you find it believable.
Applying the Guidelines. Find a recent newspaper article or television report about a statistical study on a topic that you find interesting. Write a short report applying each of the eight guidelines given in this section. (Some of the guidelines may not apply to the particular study you are
professional Journals. Consult an issue of a professional journal. Select one specific article and use the ideas of this section to summarize and evaluate the study
Twin Studies. Researchers doing statistical studies in biology, psychology, and sociology are grateful for the existence of twins. Twins can be used to study whether certain traits are inherited from parents (nature) or acquired from one’s surroundings during upbringing (nurture). Identical twins
Analyzing a Statistical Study. Find a detailed report on some recent statistical study of interest to you. Write a short report applying each of the eight guidelines given in this section. (Some of the guidelines may not apply to the particular study you are analyzing; in that case, explain why the
Headline: “Sex more important than jobs”Story summary: A survey found that 82% of 500 people interviewed by phone ranked a satisfying sex life as important or very important, while 79% ranked job satisfaction as important or very important (Associated Press).brief description of the statistical
Headline: “Drugs shown in 98 percent of movies”Story summary: A “government study” claims that drug use, drinking, or smoking was depicted in 98% of the top movie rentals (Associated Press).brief description of the statistical news story that accompanied the headline. In each case, discuss
Statistics courses First question: What is the proportion of college graduates who have taken a statistics course?Second question: What is the proportion of statistics courses taken by college students?Briefly discuss how the two questions differ and how these differences would affect the goal of a
Binge Drinking First question: How often do college students do binge drinking?Second question: How often is binge drinking done by college students?Briefly discuss how the two questions differ and how these differences would affect the goal of a study and the design of the study.
Full-Time Faculty First question: What percentage of introductory classes on campus are taught by full-time faculty members?Second question: What percentage of full-time faculty members teach introductory classes?Briefly discuss how the two questions differ and how these differences would affect
Internet Dating First question: What percentage of Internet dates lead to marriage?Second question: What percentage of marriages begin with Internet dates?Briefly discuss how the two questions differ and how these differences would affect the goal of a study and the design of the study.
Tax or Spend? A Gallup poll asked the following two questions:• Do you favor a tax cut or “increased spending on other government programs”? Result: 75% for the tax cut.• Do you favor a tax cut or “spending to fund new retirement savings accounts, as well as increased spending on
It’s All in the Wording. Princeton Survey Research Associates did a study for Newsweek magazine illustrating the effects of wording in a survey. Two questions were asked:• Do you personally believe that abortion is wrong?• Whatever your own personal view of abortion, do you favor or oppose a
Survey method. You conduct a survey to find the percentage of people in your state who can name the lieutenant governor, who plans to run for the United States Senate. You obtain addresses from a list of property owners in the state and you mail a survey to 850 randomly selected people from the
political polling. You receive a call in which the caller claims to be conducting a national opinion research poll. You are asked if your opinion about congressional candidate John Sweeney would change if you knew that Sweeney once had a car crash while driving under the influence of
Famous Book. When author Shere Hite wrote Woman and Love: A Cultural Revolution in Progress, she based conclusions about the general population of all women on 4,500 replies that she received after mailing 100,000 questionnaires to various women’s groups.identify and explain at least one source
chocolate. An article in Journal of Nutrition (Vol. 130, No. 8) noted that chocolate is rich in flavonoids. The arti -cle reports that “regular consumption of foods rich in flavonoids may reduce the risk of coronary heart disease.”The study received funding from Mars, Inc., the candy company,
counterfeit Goods. A consortium of manufacturers plans a study designed to compare the value of counterfeit goods produced in the United States in the year 2000 to the current year.determine which of the eight guidelines appears to be most relevant. Explain your reasoning.
nuclear energy poll. Randomly selected adults were asked: “Do you agree or disagree with increasing the production of nuclear energy that could potentially kill thousands of innocent people?”determine which of the eight guidelines appears to be most relevant. Explain your reasoning.
election poll. Under the headline “Turner predicted to win in a landslide,” it was reported that 54% of voters in a pre-election poll prefer Turner, compared with 46% for her opponent.determine which of the eight guidelines appears to be most relevant. Explain your reasoning.
new York city Subway Survey. The New York City Transit Authority routinely conducts a survey of satisfaction by distributing surveys on subways. The passengers take the surveys home and return them by mail.determine which of the eight guidelines appears to be most relevant. Explain your reasoning.
Agriculture. Researchers conclude that an irrigation system used to grow tomatoes in California is more effective than a competing system used in Arizona.determine which of the eight guidelines appears to be most relevant. Explain your reasoning.
Goodness. In a study of 1,200 college students, each was asked whether he or she was a good person.determine which of the eight guidelines appears to be most relevant. Explain your reasoning.
Smoking. A clinical trial involved the use of a nicotine gum as an aid to help smokers stop smoking. The clinical trial involved 1,000 college students who were paid for their participation, and the results showed that the nicotine gum treatment was highly successful. The researchers concluded that
Hygiene. The Winslow Supply Company manufactures deodorants and sponsored a survey showing that good personal hygiene is critically important for success in a job interview.determine which of the eight guidelines appears to be most relevant. Explain your reasoning.
Diet effectiveness. The Simon diet is effective because it was used by a sample of 1,000 subjects and there was a mean weight loss of 1.7 pounds during a six-month study.decide whether the statement makes sense (or is clearly true) or does not make sense (or is clearly false). Explain clearly; not
Vitamin c and colds. My experiment proved that vitamin C can reduce the severity of colds, because I controlled the experiment carefully for every possible confounding variable.decide whether the statement makes sense (or is clearly true) or does not make sense (or is clearly false). Explain
Survey location. The survey of the use of credit among adult Americans suffered from selection bias because the questionnaires were handed out only on college campuses.decide whether the statement makes sense (or is clearly true) or does not make sense (or is clearly false). Explain clearly; not
large Survey. A survey involving a larger sample of subjects is always better than one involving a smaller sample.decide whether the statement makes sense (or is clearly true) or does not make sense (or is clearly false). Explain clearly; not all of these have definitive answers, so your
confounding Variables. What are confounding variables, and what problems can they cause?
Self-Selected Surveys. Why are self-selected surveys almost always prone to participation bias?
Selection Bias and participation Bias, Describe and contrast selection bias and participation bias in sampling.
peer review, What is peer review? How is it useful?
meta-Analysis. Search through recent newspapers or journals and find an example of a meta-analysis. Briefly describe the study and summarize its conclusions.
retrospective Studies. Search through recent newspapers or journals and find an example of an observational, retrospective study. Briefly describe the study and summarize its conclusions.
experimental Studies. Search through recent newspapers or journals and find an example of a statistical study that involved an experiment. Briefly describe the study and summarize its conclusions.
observational Studies. Search through recent newspapers or journals and find an example of a statistical study that was observational. Briefly describe the study and summarize its conclusions.
Study Stopped early. It sometimes happens that study is stopped early before its completion. Use the Internet to find an example of such a study. Why was the study stopped?Should it have been stopped, or would it be better to complete the study?
Debate: Should We use Data from unethical experiments? Past research often did not conform to today’s ethical standards. In extreme cases, such as research conducted by doctors in Nazi Germany, the researchers sometimes killed the subjects of their experiments. While this past unethical research
ethics in experiments. In an infamous study conducted in Tuskegee, Alabama, from 1932 to 1972, African American males were told that they were receiving treatment for syphilis, but in fact they were not. The researchers’ hidden goal was to study the long-term effects of the disease. Use the
experimenter effects in repressed memory cases.Search the Internet for articles and information about the controversy regarding recovering repressed memories.Briefly summarize one or two of the most interesting cases and, based on what you read, express your own opinion as to whether the allegedly
Home Siding. Does aluminum siding on a home last longer than wood siding?If you were to design the experiment, how would you choose the treatment and control groups? Should the experiment be single-blind, double-blind, or neither? Explain your reasoning.
ethanol and mileage. Does an ethanol additive in gasoline cause reduced mileage?If you were to design the experiment, how would you choose the treatment and control groups? Should the experiment be single-blind, double-blind, or neither? Explain your reasoning.
lipitor and cholesterol. Does the drug Lipitor result in lower cholesterol levels?If you were to design the experiment, how would you choose the treatment and control groups? Should the experiment be single-blind, double-blind, or neither? Explain your reasoning.
Beethoven and Intelligence. Does listening to Beethoven make infants more intelligent?If you were to design the experiment, how would you choose the treatment and control groups? Should the experiment be single-blind, double-blind, or neither? Explain your reasoning.
paint mixtures. In durability tests of Benjamin Moore paint and Sherwin Williams paint, the researchers who evaluate the results know which samples are from each of the two different brands.identify any problems that are likely to cause confounding and explain how the problems could be avoided.
Weight lifting. In a test of the effects of lifting heavy weights on blood pressure, one group undergoes a treatment consisting of a weight-lifting program while another group lifts tennis balls.identify any problems that are likely to cause confounding and explain how the problems could be
Athlete’s Foot. In a clinical trial of the effectiveness of a lotion used to treat tinea pedis (athlete’s foot), the physicians who evaluate the results know which subjects were given the treatment and which were given a placebo.identify any problems that are likely to cause confounding and
Treating Back pain. A physician conducts a clinical trial of the effectiveness of running as a treatment for back pain.One group undergoes the running treatment while a control group does not.identify any problems that are likely to cause confounding and explain how the problems could be avoided.
Aspirin Trial. In Phase I of a clinical trial designed to test the effectiveness of aspirin in preventing heart attacks, aspirin is given to three people and a placebo to seven other people.identify any problems that are likely to cause confounding and explain how the problems could be avoided.
octane rating. In a comparison of gasoline with different octane ratings, 24 vans are driven with 87 octane gasoline, while 28 sport utility vehicles are driven with 91 octane gasoline. After being driven for 250 miles, the amount of gasoline consumed is measured for each vehicle.identify any
Internet Shopping. Two hundred volunteers are recruited for a study of how Internet shopping affects purchases.Each person is allowed to choose whether to be in the Internet user group or the group that agrees not to use the Internet for shopping. After one month, the purchases of the two groups
poplar Tree Growth. An experiment is designed to evaluate the effectiveness of irrigation and fertilizers on poplar tree growth. Fertilizer is used with one group of poplar trees in a moist region, and irrigation is used with poplar trees in a dry region.identify any problems that are likely to
Improving IQ Scores. A psychologist develops a procedure for improving IQ scores by training subjects to become better at taking tests.A standard IQ test is used for evaluating the effectiveness of the procedure. In this case, is it necessary to take precautions against an experimenter effect? Why
Treating Depression. A psychologist has developed a procedure for modifying behavior so that subjects suffering from depression can greatly improve that condition. In formal tests of the effectiveness of the treatment, what is an experimenter effect, and how might it be avoided?
lawn Treatment. A researcher plans to test the effectiveness of a new fertilizer on grass growth. Does it make sense to use a double-blind experiment in this case?
clothing color. A researcher plans to investigate the belief that people are more comfortable in the summer sun when they wear clothing with light colors instead of clothing with dark colors. Does it make sense to use a double-blind experiment in this case? Is it easy to implement blinding in this
ethics. A clinical trial of a new drug designed to treat hypertension (high blood pressure) is designed to last for three years, but after the first year it becomes clear that the drug is highly successful. Is it ethical to continue the trial with the result that some hypertensive subjects continue
confounding. In testing the effectiveness of a new vaccine, suppose that researchers used males for the treatment group and females for the placebo group. What is confounding, and how would it affect such an experiment?
Blinding. What is blinding, and why is it important in an experiment to test the effectiveness of a drug?
placebo. What is a placebo, and why is it important in an experiment to test the effectiveness of a drug?
political polls. Find results from a recent poll conducted by a political organization (such as the Republican or Democratic party or an organization that seeks to influence Congress on some particular issue). Briefly describe the sample and how it was chosen. Was the sample chosen in a way that
opinion poll Sample. Find a recent news report about an opinion poll carried out by a news organization(such as Gallup, Harris, USA Today, New York Times, or CNN). Briefly describe the sample and how it was chosen. Was the sample chosen in a way that was likely to introduce any bias? Explain.
Sampling in the news. Find a recent news report about a statistical study that you find interesting.Write a short summary of how the sample for the study was chosen, and briefly discuss whether you think the sample was representative of the population under study.
Selective Voting. The Academy Awards, the Heisman Trophy, and the New York Times “Bestseller List” are just three examples of selections that are determined by the votes of specially selected individuals. Pick one of these selection processes, and describe who votes and how those people are
unemployment Sample. Use the Bureau of Labor Statistics Web page to find details on how the bureau chooses the sample of households in its monthly survey.Write a short summary of the procedure and why it is likely to yield a representative sample.
public opinion poll. Use information available on the Web site of a polling organization, such as Gallup, Harris, Pew, or Yankelovich, to answer the following questions.a. How exactly is a sample of subjects selected?b. Based on what you have learned, do you think the poll results are reliable? If
mercury in Tuna. You want to determine the average mercury content of the tuna fish consumed by U.S. residents.suggest a sampling method that is likely to produce a representative sample. Explain why you chose this method over other methods.
Heart Deaths. You want to determine the percentage of deaths due to heart disease each year.suggest a sampling method that is likely to produce a representative sample. Explain why you chose this method over other methods.
Blood Type. You want to determine the percentage of people in this country in each of the four major blood groups(A, B, AB, and O).suggest a sampling method that is likely to produce a representative sample. Explain why you chose this method over other methods.
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